Wheat import: double jeopardy

The government decided to import one million tons of wheat amid sharply rising wheat and flour prices. The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approved the decision on July 29, 2026, and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb constituted a steering committee to expedite letters of credit within 24 hours.

Yet the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) issued a tender for 750,000 tons only on September 8 - 40 days after the ECC decision - with the shipment deadlines before end of October.

This delayed and costly intervention raises a fundamental question: will imported wheat actually reduce flour prices, or could it further distort the market, and discourage farmers from sowing wheat?

Production does not suggest a crisis

The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 reports wheat production of 29.61 million tons, up 4.3% from the previous year. The Economic Survey also reported 3.32 million tons of wheat stocks as of May 4, 2026, including private-sector stocks.

These figures raise questions about the magnitude and timing of the alleged shortage. The government’s estimated national wheat consumption of around 31.3 million tons also deserves closer examination because actual household consumption appears considerably lower.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Household Integrated Economic Survey, per-capita monthly wheat and wheat-flour consumption declined from 7.00 kg in 2018-19 to 6.59 kg in 2024-25. This translates into roughly 79 kg per person annually, compared with 84 kg in 2018-19.

The difference is significant. A national requirement of 31.3 million tons implies approximately 124 kg per capita. That figure should not automatically be equated with actual household consumption.

Consumption patterns are also changing as consumers respond to prices, weather, cooking costs and availability of alternative staples. Rising gas and LPG prices have encouraged some households to shift towards cheaper and easier-to-cook foods, including broken rice.

Therefore, wheat policy needs to reconcile production, stocks, actual household consumption and the national food balance sheet rather than relying on a single consumption assumption.

Where is the shortage?

Pakistan has harvested a sizeable wheat crop, particularly in Punjab and Sindh. Yet the market does not appear to be facing the classic symptoms of an extraordinary nationwide shortage.

The immediate problem appears to involve prices, inventory management, provincial releases and supply-chain practices. In Lahore, consumers are reportedly paying Rs1,100 for a 10 kg bag of mixed-quality flour, while fine flour in 15 kg bags is selling for  Rs2,180–2,200.

Such prices warrant investigation when the country has produced nearly 30 million tons of wheat particularly a bumper harvest in the Punjab.

The government should establish how much wheat is held by public agencies, licensed food grains traders, flour mills and other stockists before committing scarce foreign exchange to import huge quantities.

Hoarding and procurement

Delayed procurement in Sindh, private-sector procurement in Punjab and uncertainty surrounding federal procurement may have contributed to aggressive purchasing and stockholding by hoarders, traders and flour millers.

If adequate wheat exists but is being withheld from the market, importing more wheat could unintentionally reward hoarders. The government would then be using foreign exchange to address what is essentially a domestic inventory-management problem.

Anti-hoarding laws should therefore be enforced, but on the basis of verifiable inventory data rather than arbitrary raids.

The flour-milling question

Recent action against two flour mills in Rahim Yar Khan, following allegations that cheaper broken rice flour was being mixed with wheat flour, also highlights weaknesses in the distribution chain. Officials reportedly collected samples from nine other mills for testing.

The incident does not establish that such practices are widespread. It does, however, demonstrate the need for traceability.

Where government wheat is supplied to mills, every ton should be digitally tracked from procurement and storage to milling and final distribution. This would help identify diversion, substitution and other forms of arbitrage.

Rice is changing the equation

Pakistan’s staple-food market is not static. Rice and potato have become an increasingly important alternative to wheat, while HIES data show that whole rice consumption has also declined over the longer term.

Consumer choices can nevertheless shift between wheat and rice according to relative prices, weather and convenience. During extreme summer temperatures, rice-based meals may become more attractive because they are easier and quicker to prepare, while energy constraints can influence cooking choices.

Pakistan exported around four million tons of rice during 2025-26, while domestic consumption was also around four million tons. With approximately two million tons of old-crop rice reportedly carried forward, the arrival of the new crop could increase market supplies and put further pressure on rice prices.

Lower rice prices could encourage price-sensitive consumers to substitute rice for wheat, making historical wheat-demand assumptions less reliable.

Costly imports: the double jeopardy

TCP received nine bids ranging from $348.83 to $369.95 per ton CFR Karachi. Reportedly TCP has purchased 565,000 tons wheat at $348.83 per ton C&F basis. TCP issued another tender for purchase of balance 185,000 tons wheat and has received the lowest bid for 60,000 tons at $339.36 per ton C&F basis.

After adding port clearance, handling, transportation, storage, financing mark-up and onward distribution to provinces will add to its final cost.

If the imported wheat establishes a higher benchmark than prevailing domestic wheat, traders may seek comparable prices for local supplies.

This creates the first jeopardy: consumers may not receive the intended significant price relief.

The second is the impact on farmers. Wheat growers begin preparations for the next sowing season in November and December. If imported wheat reaches the market in late October, it could weaken the price signal received by growers just before planting. Growers may demand fixation of higher support price at Rs5000/- per 40kgs as their inputs cost is increasing every year and now even on daily basis due to diesel prices changing on daily basis.

Poorly timed imports can therefore create a contradiction: an intervention intended to protect consumers could discourage future domestic production.

If imports are genuinely necessary, private-sector imports and direct market supply should be considered rather than relying exclusively on TCP and filling public warehouses.

What should the government do?

First, provincial governments should immediately publish district-wise wheat and flour inventories, including government stocks, releases, flour-mill stocks and licensed grains traders, private-sector inventories.

Second, Pakistan needs a real-time digital wheat tracking system covering procurement, storage, release, milling and distribution.

Third, anti-hoarding laws should be enforced strictly against speculative withholding, supported by transparent inventory data.

Fourth, flour mills receiving government wheat should face random quality testing by accredited laboratories.

Fifth, wheat policy should reconcile actual household consumption with the national food balance sheet rather than relying solely on a national per-capita consumption assumption.

Finally, if additional imports are genuinely required, the government should allow efficient private sector to import and direct market distribution to hit hard hoarders and speculators.

Food security begins with accurate data

Pakistan cannot afford another cycle in which shortage claims trigger intervention, intervention distorts market signals, and the resulting costs are ultimately passed on to consumers and farmers.

With wheat production at 29.61 million tons, substantial stocks reported by the Economic Survey, declining household wheat consumption and changing consumer preferences, the government should first establish where existing wheat is and who is holding it.

Food security does not mean importing whenever prices rise. It requires accurate data, transparent inventories, efficient distribution and predictable market signals.

The decision to import one million tons therefore deserves a fresh review - not because food security is unimportant, but because it is too important to be managed on assumptions.

Otherwise, an import intended to prevent a shortage could become the very policy intervention that raises domestic wheat and flour prices while weakening incentives for the next crop.

Economic security is national security - and food security begins with accurate data.