Copper flat as China caution outweighs US stockpiling, Goldman upgrade

Copper held steady on Tuesday as cautious buying in China at high prices offset Goldman Sachs’ raised price forecasts and swelling US inventories ahead of potential import tariffs.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was flat at $14,339.50 a metric ton, while the most-traded November copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.53% to 109,270 yuan ($16,360) a ton, as of 0330 GMT.

Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 a ton and its 2027 average to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States.

It expects deficits outside the US of 950,000 tons in 2026 and 220,000 tons in 2027.

Comex copper inventories reached 791,679 short tons, or about 718,200 tons, on Monday amid stockpiling ahead of potential US import tariffs.

The LME approved Owensboro, Kentucky, as another US delivery point.

LME copper inventories rose 2.99% to 232,175 tons on October 16, according to the exchange’s latest report on its inventories. Copper also won 50% of votes in an LME seminar poll on the metal with the most price upside, amid expectations for AI-related demand.

In China, the Yangshan import premium, a gauge of Chinese consumers’ appetite for imported materials stood at $137 a ton on Monday, while domestic spot premiums fell 115 yuan to 710 yuan a ton.

Chinese broker Everbright Futures said cautious purchasing at high prices and uncertainty over US tariffs could keep copper trading within a range.

BHP reported a 19% drop in quarterly copper output to 400,700 tons after disruptions in Chile and Australia, but maintained its annual guidance.

Among other LME metals, aluminium fell 0.25%, zinc rose 0.20%, lead gained 0.08%, nickel added 0.07% and tin slipped 0.18%.

On the SHFE, aluminium lost 0.24%, zinc rose 0.02%, lead gained 0.49%, nickel climbed 0.64% and tin advanced 0.68%.