LONDON: Raw sugar futures on ICE fell on Thursday, heading away from a 19-month peak set on Wednesday as investors viewed the latest El Nino-inspired rally that took prices well above 20 cents as overdone. Coffee and cocoa also headed lower.
SUGAR
Raw sugar fell 1.9 percent to 20.44 cents per lb at 1343 GMT, after setting a 19-month high of 21.24 cents on Wednesday. “The market appears to have gotten overdone on the El Nino-inspired production worries,” said broker ADMIS.
Heavy El Nino-linked rains, which have disrupted harvest and crushing activity in top grower Brazil, are expected to persist over the next week, according to forecasters. The El Nino weather event is also expected to curb sugar production in Asia this season.
In news, Europe’s Sudzucker said it expects EU sugar prices to rebound from their recent four-year lows as droughts and low rainfall take a toll on beet harvests. White sugar fell 1.5 percent to USD547.20 a metric ton.
COFFEE
Arabica coffee fell 1.7 percent to USD2.8760 per lb, having closed down 3.9 percent on Wednesday. Arabica is under pressure from surging exports from top grower Brazil. Brazil’s September green coffee exports were the highest in 20 months, data showed.
However, concerns the El Niño weather event will curb global output in 2027/28 are underpinning prices.
As a case in point, premiums for Central American arabica have risen to their highest in around three years amid an El Nino-linked drought. Robusta coffee lost 2 percent to USD3,416 a ton.
COCOA
London cocoa fell 1.4 percent to £4,115 per ton.
“The 2025/26 surplus continues to grow, with estimates putting it between 450,000 and 720,000 tons. This would be the largest surplus we have ever seen,” said broker StoneX in a note.
It added, however, that forecasts for 2026/27 vary between a wide deficit and a surplus, with the main point of uncertainty being the effect El Niño will have on crops. New York cocoa lost 0.8 percent to USD5,536 a ton.