KARACHI: The country is set to experience a hotter and largely drier summer this year, with the Pakistan Meteorological Department warning that above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall are expected across most of the country during the June-to-August period.
The seasonal outlook, based on an ensemble of nine global climate prediction models, points to the strengthening of El Niño as a key driver of the forecast. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation has already shifted into a positive phase and is expected to intensify further during the season. The Indian Ocean Dipole, currently neutral, is forecast to turn positive by July.
Most parts of the country can expect normal to below-normal rainfall during June, July, and August, with the most significant shortfalls likely over the north-eastern parts of Punjab. The northern regions — including Gilgit-Baltistan, adjoining areas of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir — are the exception, where near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation is anticipated.
Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal throughout the country for the entire season.
The below-normal rainfall expected across most of the country during the critical June-to-August period raises concerns for the Kharif crop sowing and early crop development. Rain-fed agricultural productivity is likely to decline, and demand for irrigation water is expected to rise.
Above-normal temperatures will compound these pressures, as warmer conditions accelerate pest and disease development in seasonal crops, potentially triggering earlier outbreaks and increasing the risk of yield and quality losses. Irrigation requirements for standing crops are also expected to rise progressively as temperatures climb through the season. Timely monitoring and crop protection measures are considered essential.
On a more positive note, enhanced precipitation in upper catchment areas is expected to improve reservoir water levels, which should help ensure sufficient water availability for both agriculture and power generation.
Despite the broad dry outlook, above-normal rainfall in the northern regions carries its own hazards. The mountainous and flood-prone areas of northern Pakistan face an elevated risk of flash floods and landslides. The season may also bring extreme precipitation events, including strong convective systems over northern and hilly regions, further increasing these risks.
High temperature in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir are expected to accelerate snowmelt, raising river water levels and increasing the likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods.
Heavy rainfall episodes during the season may trigger urban flooding in low-lying areas of major cities across Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sharp temperature gradients may also generate strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms, which can damage crops and infrastructure, reduce visibility, and disrupt transportation.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026