US natural gas futures climb as output falls, LNG exports surge

NEW YORK: US natural gas futures edged up about 1percent to a fresh three-week high on Friday on a drop in output over the past month and near-record liquefied natural gas exports.

Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.7 cents, or 1.3percent, to USD2.804 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 7 for a second day in a row.

For the week, the front-month was up about 2percent after gaining about 10percent last week. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 60 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation’s biggest oil-producing shale basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 69 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged a negative USD2.17 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive USD1.15 in 2025 and a positive USD2.88 over the past five years (2021 to 2025).

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states fell to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March and a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was down even more, on track to start May at a preliminary 108.6 bcfd on Friday as low spot prices prompted energy firms like EQT, the second-largest US gas producer, to temporarily reduce production. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.

Analysts said mostly mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. They noted, however, that recent output declines coupled with cooler weather and higher demand likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 7percent above normal during the week ended May 1, down from 8percent above during the week ended April 24.

Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 16. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.2 bcfd this week to 100.0 bcfd next week and 99.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next week were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March and the prior all-time high of 18.7 bcfd in February.