A pattern of unusual trading activity has been observed during the second term of Donald Trump, with traders placing large bets shortly before major announcements from the US President, raising concerns about potential insider trading.
An analysis by the BBC found “a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.”
In several instances, these trades generated significant profits as markets reacted sharply to the announcements, it said.
According to the report, one of the most striking examples came on March 9, 2026, during the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Oil trading volumes surged 47 minutes before Donald Trump told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much.” As soon as the interview aired, oil prices plunged by around 25%.
“The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices,” read the report.
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A similar pattern was observed on March 23, when Trump posted on his Truth platform about “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Iran and a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” to hostilities.
Oil markets reacted immediately, with prices falling sharply. However, “an unusually high number of bets” had already been placed on the US oil price roughly 14 minutes before the post, in what one analyst described as “abnormal, for sure.”
BBC report noted that equity markets have also shown comparable trends.
In April 2025, traders began placing large bets on a stock market rebound shortly before Trump announced a 90-day pause on sweeping tariffs.
“The benchmark S&P 500 index jumped by 9.5% - one of its largest single-day gains since the Second World War,” read the report.
It added that some traders reportedly placed bets exceeding $2 million, generating profits of nearly $20 million.
The BBC listed four other instances, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, of alleged insider trading.
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Meanwhile, analysts remain divided on the implications. Some argue the trades bear the “hallmarks of illegal insider trading,” while others suggest market participants may simply be anticipating Trump’s moves more effectively.
Legal experts have also cautioned that proving wrongdoing is difficult. Moreover, US regulators have not acknowledged any of the allegations of insider trading.