China-focused agri investment drive now moving from headline MoU to execution discipline: envoy

ISLAMABAD: China-focused agriculture investment drive in Pakistan is now moving from headline Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) to execution discipline.

In an exclusive talk with Business Recorder, Pakistan’s Ambassador to China Khalil Hashmi, warned that Pakistan will keep losing serious investors unless it can put basic project economics “in writing” — from land pricing ranges and lease options to utility tariffs, tax treatment and customs-duty exemptions.

Hashmi described the agriculture investment conference organised by the Pakistan Embassy in Beijing as a deliberate, China-focused, private-sector-led pathway meant to convert Chinese capital, technology and standards into joint ventures on Pakistani soil, with profits and risks shared by both sides.

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He distinguished this model from the larger CPEC agriculture track, which he said is largely government-to-government and working-group driven, while the Embassy’s initiative is “99 percent B2B” and broken down into ten sub-sectors spanning the value chain.

Hashmi said a three-tier follow-up mechanism is already in place to track progress on MoUs and joint ventures, starting at senior bureaucratic level and escalating to higher leadership reviews.

He cautioned, however, that MoUs should not be mistaken for final deals. “When the MoUs are signed, this is just the handshake…the starting point,” he said, adding that Pakistan’s average realisation rate conversion from MoU to agreement or contract stands at around 23 percent, which he termed a relatively strong benchmark.

On timelines, the Ambassador offered a practical conversion curve rather than a fixed model. In his assessment, it typically takes roughly three to six months for MoU to mature into a contract or JV, depending on the sector and the readiness of the two private parties.

After signing, he said, production and visible on-ground impact can take another six to nine months, and in many cases a year to year and a half before results begin to show—though some projects can move faster and others can take two years or more.

Pressed on which areas inside agriculture are most likely to generate tangible returns in the near term, Hashmi prioritised three: cold chain, packaging and food-and-agriculture logistics.

He argued these are interlinked choke points where Pakistan is losing value due to post-harvest and post-slaughter wastage and inefficient supply chains. “Our supply chains, our value chains…are not efficient,” he said, pointing to inadequate scale and weaker-than-required standards of handling and storage across fruits and vegetables, meat and poultry, and fisheries.

Addressing concerns that Chinese firms and technology could out-compete Pakistan’s domestic agriculture players, Hashmi said such fears are “misplaced” and that Pakistan’s core constraints are structural: low yields and productivity, low mechanisation and technology absorption, and gaps in meeting international food safety and quality standards.

Rather than allowing one-sided dominance, he said the Embassy is pushing a joint-venture model so Chinese technology, management practices, capital and compliance culture are embedded into Pakistan’s local value chains, lifting productivity and export readiness.

He argued that market access is not Pakistan’s main hurdle; supply capacity and standards are. Citing the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement, he said a large portion of tariff lines are open and many product lines are effectively zero-rated, yet Pakistan’s returns remain limited because it cannot produce enough at consistent quality.

He referred to Sanitary and Phyto Sanitary (SPS) protocols as the gateway for perishable exports, noting that multiple protocols are already in place for certain fruits and that additional crop protocols are progressing, while other items have been finalised and await signing. Without meeting SPS and safety thresholds, he said, Pakistan cannot scale exports of fish, meat and other sensitive food products regardless of tariff concessions.

Hashmi acknowledged Pakistan’s investment promotion still lacks the specificity investors require.

He said the investor’s first questions are basic but rarely answered with numbers in Pakistan’s pitch material: land prices by region with a credible range and leasing options; electricity, gas and water rates with region-wise variation; clarity on what “tax holidays” mean in practice; and unambiguous customs-duty rules for importing machinery and equipment under FDI policies. “How can people take us seriously if we cannot put it in writing?” he asked, arguing that polished language cannot substitute for a hard-data pitch book that investors can underwrite.

On deal structure, he said joint ventures are being pursued precisely for risk sharing and profit sharing.

Chinese companies typically bring capital and technology, while Pakistani partners can contribute land as equity, labour and local operational support. If projects do not take off or output targets are missed, he said, the downside is shared—making the model more resilient than arrangements where one side carries most of the exposure.

Hashmi also disclosed that the Embassy is integrating investment mobilisation with workforce development to pre-empt a skills bottleneck as projects move to execution.

He cited a recent agriculture-focused Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) forum in Beijing that brought Chinese companies and vocational training providers together with Pakistani firms involved in recent MoUs and JVs, asking companies to define their skills needs and put “some money on the table” to co-finance demand-driven training.

He described it as an early-stage, sector-specific model aimed at producing technicians and skilled labour aligned with factory and processing needs.

On transparency and safeguards, he acknowledged greater public scrutiny around large investment figures, but drew a line between G2G projects — where higher disclosure is warranted — and B2B deals, where firms may withhold commercially sensitive or IP-linked details. He argued that at minimum MoUs and JVs should be registered with value bands so the state can credibly report outcomes and respond to scrutiny.

He also said institutions responsible for land use, water resources, pesticides, labour standards and environmental safeguards must ensure compliance through licensing, certification and enforcement mechanisms that already exist.

The ambassador said there is a general sense among Chinese stakeholders that Pakistan’s security situation has improved and that this improvement is being recognised, even as security remains a key consideration in investor decision-making.

He further revealed an Embassy-driven six-month sector road show to widen the investment funnel beyond agriculture. According to Hashmi, a home appliances conference is planned for end-March or the first week of April, followed by pharmaceuticals in April, semiconductors in May and surgical/medical equipment in June — an approach he framed as proactive convening rather than waiting for “templates” from elsewhere.

Hashmi told Business Recorder that over the last two years he has mobilised over USD12 billion in China-linked investment interest for Pakistan, though he noted that a substantial share remains at MoU stage.

He cited USD2.5 billion in joint ventures associated with the September engagement and said earlier conversions included roughly USD300 million that moved into contracts, with a large portion of the joint-venture value coming from earlier MoUs that “graduated” into JVs evidence, he argued, that the needle is moving, even if slowly.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026