All progress comes to a halt when delusional thinking becomes a national pastime. We refuse to accept results as they are obtained in black and white. We begin to hallucinate. We see not what is apparent but begin to look with intoxicating pleasure at what is non-existent.
We begin to indulge into wholesale deception. As a nation for the longest of time, we are all guilty of applying this logic upon our economic policies, initiatives and the resultant outcomes. Exports are one such critical area where falsity prevails.
Export figures have never crossed officially beyond USD 30.6 billion, while un-official figures during 2024 stood at USD 32.44 billion. The reasons for lack of focus could be several, but essentially it is also about lack of imagination of our exporting community.
Exporters have since the 1960s relied upon the US and the West as their export markets. In addition to this, in fairness, whatever subsidies the government gave, in terms of concessional financing has been abused to the hilt by exporters.
During Covid 19, large sums of disbursements were made for BMR (balancing, modernising and replacing) — where is its impact? Unseen. The numbers haven’t moved; in fact the needle is stuck. So where was the money deployed? Possibly, into the graveyard of overseas real estate.
In the last 3-4 decades, several developing countries developed policies that gravitated around the concept of a developing economy that was housed within the view of creating an export oriented economy.
The counties of North East Asia and South East Asia, of which some are clubbed together as Newly Industrialised Countries (NICS) adopted this economic strategy. They focused on developing exports which they had rightfully deduced would be an important feature for economic growth. The NICs spent a lot of years in research and development to understand the needs of the “global consumer”, they invested into developing services, products and industrial/capital goods that were largely meant to replace the production output of Europe and the USA. This was pursued with the intent to offer the same product, initially at less than the quality produced by the West, but which in price terms became more affordable. These economic architects very finely executed the strategy of where on the value chain they would seek to come as a replacement of the West. They were successful.
The products (Japan) produced were expensive in the local markets but were cheaper outside of the country. In the decades of the 1980s and 1990s hordes of Japanese travelers would descend upon Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia and later China to buy a Cannon, a Sony, etc.
The North Eastern nations of Japan, South Korea and later People’s Republic of China specialized in miniaturizing the consumer products. An American TV set would be a piece of furniture in a living room. The Japanese brought the TV into a human palm. That’s thinking ahead. That’s precisely what economic planning commissions are supposed to do. Think ahead.
These countries explored and developed new markets. They went beyond the confines of Europe and Northern Americas. Asia was their first port of call for marketing; once they made inroads, they turned their focus to Latin America and Africa.
It was inconceivable during the 1970s to imagine that in less than a decade there will be vehicles manufactured by Honda, Daewoo and Toyota plying on the streets of Rio, Buenos Aires, Abidjan, Lagos, Nairobi, etc. A great achievement indeed it was for South Korea, Japan and China.
Through the columns of this newspaper as well as others, I have appealed, nay lamented, about the lack of focus towards the emerging and growing markets of Africa, and in particular the sub-Saharan region and the North East African nations.
I was living in Beijing in the early part of the decade of the 90s, when a conference was called under the banner of ‘China-Africa Relations’. In this conference, no African leader was invited; instead all the ambassadors of China posted in several countries were invited to brainstorm alongside MOFERT (Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade) to develop a trade strategy for Africa during the next twenty/thirty years.
They came up with a plan (we also are good at making plans) which they implemented tooth and nail (we falter at implementation of anything that is good for the country). Today, China- Africa business is booming.
China has done remarkably well in Africa. China penetrated the African markets through state-owned enterprises that made significant breakthroughs in Botswana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Algeria, Cameroon, etc.
The Chinese enterprises brought their expertise into the African continent by building dams, highways and stadiums. The Chinese brought in new technology into this underdeveloped continent.
Pakistan has ignored Africa. The little that is happening in terms of trade volumes is embarrassingly low. We fail to do proper trade trends and analyses.
The examination of trade patterns and corridors is important in determining which markets to connect, with whom and when; and in which areas. Between 2020 and 2024, Pakistan traded with almost 50 African nations but the aggregate trade volume remained at a low of USD 26bn, with imports comprising USD 17bn and exports a mere USD 8bn.
Of these fifty countries, only three constituted as any significant trading partners; we imported from South Africa, Morocco and Kenya: bituminous coal, LNG, copper, black tea, oil cakes, phosphoric acid, DAP amounting to USD 10.5bn on an aggregate basis.
On the critical export front, besides Kenya and South Africa, our major buyer was Tanzania during the same period of 2020 -24. We exported rice, worn clothing, linen, home textiles and cement; the aggregate value being USD 8bn.
Taking a cue from Chinese wisdom, India followed suit by hosting for the first time an Indo-African summit to carve India’s footprint in the African continent. The Indian leadership, committed to setting up training institutes across the continent in the fields of food processing, weather forecasting, IT, education, planning and administration.
In comparison to Pakistan, both China and India have virtually invaded economically the entire African continent. China’s total trade in just one year (2024 alone) was USD 300bn plus. This was a 10 percent increase in exports over the figures of the year 2023.
India’s trade volume/value on an aggregated basis for the same period 2023-24 stood at USD 404bn; of which exports constituted USD 203bn and imports stood valued at USD 201bn.
Africa is a mine of potential for Pakistan. This area of foreign economic relations with Africa has been neglected. Sadly enough, Pakistan has not made much progress in this regard. The recent engagement with Egypt is a welcome step. Pakistan was one of the first few countries to support African countries in their struggles for freedom.
Defence officers from Africa are still trained in Pakistan. Africa possesses a potential of becoming a major engine of growth; it has immense potential in terms of its demographic mix. There are sizeable populations from the sub-continent living in South Africa and Kenya. One can also find a lot of Sindhi-speaking people settled in West Africa. This is a massive plus and should be taken full advantage of.
Pakistan must turn its focus towards Africa through exports of textile, rice and semi-processed foods. Our expertise in the fields banking, telecommunications, agriculture, IT, biotechnology, alternative energy resources, water management, irrigation and infrastructure development can be instrumental in giving a phenomenal boost to the economies of the African countries.
Our approach needs to be repositioned towards Africa. There should be greater interaction between the parliaments of Pakistan and African states. Exchange of frequent and goal oriented visits by the leaderships of Pakistan and African countries will go a long way towards promoting trade. Our business community must take special interest and be more imaginative in dealing with Africa.
There should be continuous exchange of ideas through collaboration via seminars, trade fairs and exhibitions. This will open business avenues, which can promote and foster trade relationships.
We must politically and economically engage with the entire continent of Africa. Africa can be a region of promise for developing Pakistan’s export markets.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The writer is a Senior Banker & Freelance Contributor