Platform set for further growth: Experts weigh in on Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25

The government, on Monday, a day before the federal budget is unveiled, released its much-awaited Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, which showed Pakistan’s economy is expected to grow 2.7% in the fiscal year ending June 2025.

Pakistan has provisionally recorded real GDP growth of 2.68% during FY25, missing the growth target of 3.6%, against 2.51% recorded in FY24.

Talking to Business Recorder, economic analysts weigh in on Pakistan’s economic performance during the outgoing fiscal.

“The economy moved in the right direction during the outgoing fiscal,” Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Global, told Business Recorder.

“Services sector, which has a 58% share in GDP, contributed the most with 2.91% growth in FY25,” he said.

On the other hand, agriculture posted modest growth of 0.56% in FY25, led by a 4.72% rise in livestock. However, major crops declined by 13.49% due to lower cultivation and weather challenges.

The industry expanded by 4.77%, supported by small-scale manufacturing and slaughtering. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) contracted by 1.5% amid high costs and supply constraints.

“The economy has stabilised in the outgoing fiscal, which has provided a platform set for further growth,” said Samiullah Tariq, Head of Research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company.

Meanwhile, Topline Securities, a brokerage house, believed that the GDP growth “will be revised down, especially due to enlarged growth numbers of the industrial segment at 4.77% compared to actual growth in 9MFY25 at -1%”.

Overseas Pakistanis help country post historic current account surplus of $1.9bn in 10MFY25

Islamabad is also targeting a GDP growth of 4.2% for the financial year 2025-26. “The target is achievable if Pakistan remains steadfast in its reforms and follows the IMF programme,” Samiullah added.

In another key development, Pakistan reported a current account surplus of $1.9 billion during the first ten months of the financial year 2024-25, marking a major turnaround from the $1.3 billion deficit recorded in the same period last year, according to the survey.

“This is a very positive development, and we expect the country to reach primary surplus in the upcoming fiscal year as well,” said Ghani.

Moreover, tax collection also improved considerably in FY25, the finance minister informed that the number of individual filers doubled to 3.7 million, whereas the number of high-value filers jumped by 178% during the outgoing fiscal.

“Although the increase in tax collection is good, we need further rationalisation,” he added.