ISLAMABAD: The National Accounts Committee (NAC) is scheduled to meet on Thursday (Mar 28) to approve the 2nd quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the current financial year, ie, 2023-24.
Official sources revealed to Business Recorder that the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives (MoPD&SI) secretary would chair the NAC meeting where data compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for the Q2 (October-December) for the financial year 2023-24 would be presented.
The Finance Ministry in its “Economic Monthly Update & Outlook February 2024” estimates Q2 fiscal year 2023-24 GDP growth to rise to around three per cent claiming stronger manufacturing output and higher production of crops including cotton, which has increased by 75 per cent to 8.35 million bales.
NAC lowers FY23 growth rate to -0.17pc
According to the NAC meeting held on November 28, 2023, the GDP growth accelerated to 2.1 per cent in Q1 fiscal year 2023-24, after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The growth was broad-based with the agriculture sector posting five per cent growth and manufacturing activity registering 2.5 per cent growth.
The Finance Ministry stated that data from Q2 fiscal year 2023-24 is showing stronger performance of the manufacturing sector, with large-scale manufacturing posting 8.2 per cent increase over Q1. The ministry expects Q2 fiscal year 2023-24 GDP growth to rise to around 3 per cent on stronger manufacturing output and higher production of crops including cotton, which has increased by 75 per cent to 8.35 million bales.
The Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector showcased an increase of 3.4 per cent on a YoY basis in December 2023, compared to a 1.1 per cent decline. On a MoM basis, it increased by 15.7 per cent in December, against an increase of 3.6 per cent in November. Overall, a decline of 0.4 per cent was recorded during July-December fiscal year 2023-24, compared to a contraction of 2.1 per cent in the same period last year.
During July-December fiscal year 2023-24, 12 out of 22 sectors witnessed positive growth.
The positive sectors include food, beverages, wearing apparel, leather products, coke and petroleum products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-metallic mineral products, rubber products, wood products, machinery and equipment and others (including football), while negative growth observed in tobacco, textile, paper and board, iron and steel products, fabricated metal, computer, electronics and optical products, automobiles, electrical equipment, furniture and other transport equipment.
According to the Finance Ministry, the agriculture sector is experiencing stronger growth as compared to last year. The robust performance in this sector reflects a better situation of food security and employment during the ongoing fiscal year. For the Rabi season 2023-24, the timely sowing of wheat aligns with the goal of reaching a production target of 32.12 million tonnes, with expectations for further increase in other crops production due to favourable climatic conditions.
The farm tractor production and sales registered an increase of 76.7 per cent and 82.5 per cent during July-January fiscal year 2023-24, respectively, compared to the same period last year. A mixed trend was witnessed in fertiliser usage, urea off-take dropped by 6.7 per cent during October-January, whereas, the DAP offtake rose by 14.5 per cent during the same period.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024