Rouble weakens again after limited reprieve from central bank interventions

11 Aug, 2023

The Russian rouble weakened on Friday, heading back towards the 98 mark against the dollar, but depreciating at a slower pace than much of August after the central bank intervened in the FX market to try and stabilise its tumbling currency.

At 0702 GMT, the rouble was 0.5% weaker against the dollar at 97.92.

On Wednesday, it had sunk to 98.0725, its weakest against the dollar since March 25, 2022, hampered by strong foreign currency demand and limited supply.

Shortly after that, the Bank of Russia said it would stop conducting the finance ministry’s foreign exchange purchases as prescribed by Russia’s budget rule, in order to reduce market volatility.

It had lost 0.2% to trade at 107.74 versus the euro.

It had shed 0.3% against the yuan to 13.51.

The central bank’s move ultimately means the net supply of foreign currency on the market will increase to 2.3 billion roubles ($23.74 million) from 500 million roubles a day. At its weakest, the rouble was around 28% weaker against the dollar year-to-date.

Russian rouble recovers after Thursday’s drop

Analysts, who had been expecting Russia’s monetary authorities to act, generally said greater action would still be required to make a significant difference.

“In the conditions of the existing foreign currency imbalance, we consider the measure insufficient to return the rouble to equilibrium levels,” said Rosbank analysts in a note.

Russian authorities, who blame the rouble’s decline squarely on the shrinking trade balance, have said 80-90 is a comfortable level for the rouble against the dollar.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia’s main export, was down 0.3% at $86.11 a barrel.

Russian stock indexes opened mixed.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was steady at 1,017.4 points.

The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.4% higher at 3,160.2 points.

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