EDITORIAL: While extreme weather events have increased in frequency and intensity during the recent years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) now says there is a 66 percent chance that annual global surface temperatures will exceed the 1.5C threshold above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023-2027 with a range of 1.1C to 1.8C forecast for each of those five years. As a result, there is a 98 percent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five year period as a whole, will be the warmest ever. A critical factor contributing to warming is the likely appearance of El Nino, a weather phenomenon developing in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which the WMO warns will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into unchartered territory.
What that entails is not difficult to foresee. Heat waves, wildfires, droughts, storms, heavy rains and floods people have been experiencing in different parts of the world could become more severe and disruptive. For Pakistan, one of the countries most vulnerable to effects of climate change, it could spell disaster as recent cycles of heavy rains and droughts become more persistent and melting of glaciers accelerates, depleting water flows in the reviver system, lifeblood of its agrarian economy, with profound ramifications for livelihoods, food security and ecosystem.
The government must get its act together and do all that is necessary to minimise impact of the coming calamity. Although scientists say the breach of 1.5C may be temporary, it is an indicator of how much the average global temperatures have increased compared to the last century. No part of the world will remain unaffected by this impending threat. What needs to be done to make this planet liveable for the present and future generations is not lost on anyone. Stating the obvious, an official of Britain’s Met Office, the WMO’s lead centre for yearly to 10-yearly climate predictions, averred that “we need to emit as few as possible of the greenhouse gases, and any emissions that we manage to cut will reduce the warming. And this will reduce the big extreme impacts.”
All major polluters must curb reliance on fossil fuels. Although most Western governments, particularly the US’, have yet to fulfil their commitments made at the various climate change conferences, there is an increasing private sector trend towards greener alternatives. At last year’s COP27 summit at Glasgow, China along with India, resisted compliance with the 1.5C target, but Beijing has taken drastic measures to curtail emissions. India, on the other hand, has refused to fulfil its obligations until 2070, insisting on ‘phasing out’ rather than ‘phasing down’ emission. Last September, its power minister Raj Kumar Singh said his country would add 56 GW of coal-fired generation capacity by 2030 to meet the growing demand for electricity. All this means, India as well as Pakistan should brace for a bigger blow from the approaching hottest years ever.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023