SINGAPORE: CBOT May wheat may drop into a range of $6.80-1/2 to $6.89-1/2 per bushel, due to the completion of a bounce from the March 10 low of $6.61.

The completion was confirmed by the repeated failures of the contract to break a resistance at $7.12 and the subsequent drop.

The ultimate bounce target was fixed at $7.21-3/4, the peak of the wave 4.

With the break below a rising trendline, it is time to abort this target.

Over the next few days, wheat may drop towards a wide range of $6.61-3/4 to $6.80-1/2. Whether the preceding downtrend from the Feb. 14 high of $8.07-1/2 has resumed is subject to further observation.

Any stabilization of the price above $6.61-3/4 may be considered as the first sign of the bounce extension.

CBOT wheat may retest resistance at $7.03-1/4

Resistance is at $7.03-1/4, a break above which could lead to a gain into $7.06-1/2 to $7.12 range. On the daily chart, a bounce target of $7.31-1/4 became invalid.

A bearish target of $6.75-1/2 has been established.

It is not very clear that the second bounce occurs around $6.75-1/2.

The occurrence will be very unlikely if wheat closes below this level on Monday.