Indian rupee likely to open little changed in muted holiday trade

26 Dec, 2022

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed to the U.S. dollar on Monday on mixed cues from Asian currencies and higher oil prices.

The rupee was seen around 82.80-82.85 per dollar in early trades, compared with its previous close of 82.8575.

The currency held a narrow range last week due to dollar sales near the 82.85-82.90 levels, with some traders reckoning the Reserve Bank of India does not want the rupee to breach 83.

In the holiday-shortened week for dollar markets, volumes are expected to be thin, and a muted greenback is likely to keep the rupee range-bound, said a foreign exchange trader.

Asian currencies were marginally weak to higher as the dollar index remained little changed at 104.250 after data reinforced expectations of smaller rate hikes by the Federal Reserve going forward.

Equities in the region were mostly up.

Late on Friday, U.S. data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after climbing 0.4% in October, signalling that the economy was cooling a bit.

Futures are expecting U.S. rates to peak at below 5% around the middle of next year before moving lower.

Oil prices continued to push higher, rising near $84 per barrel after gaining for the past two weeks.

Even when the dollar weakened a bit, higher crude kept up the pressure on the rupee last week, contributing to it not strengthening past 82.50, said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst at LKP Securities.

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