Australian dollar extends fall to 2-year low, defies strong retail data

28 Sep, 2022

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their declines to fresh two-year lows on Wednesday as the safe-haven dollar received another boost from jittery traders amid continued selling of stocks and bonds.

The Aussie slid 0.6% to break through 64 cents and last traded at $0.6395, the lowest since May 2020.

It failed to sustain a minor rally overnight and finished the session 0.4% lower.

There does not appear to be any major support in sight.

That brought its losses against the US dollar this year to a staggering 12%, although the Aussie was 1% higher against a basket of its major trading partners’ currencies so far in 2022, reflecting the broad strength in the greenback.

The Antipodean also failed to get any material support from better-than-expected retail sales data, which showed Australian shoppers were proving resilient to red-hot inflation and rising interest rates.

Australia, NZ dollars get a break from selling, bears still in control

“With safe haven demand for the USD still intact, there are no signs of easing pressure on the AUD,” said analysts at ANZ. Adding to the downside, the Chinese yuan hit a record low of 7.2 per dollar.

Many investors use the Aussie as a proxy for the yuan given China is Australia’s single biggest export market and a driver of commodity prices.

The kiwi shed 0.8% to $0.5585 on Wednesday, sitting not too far from the March 2020 trough at $0.5469.

Australia’s strong retail sales figures are likely to add to the case for a 50 basis-point rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.

Markets are leaning toward a half-point rise to 2.85% on Tuesday and see rates as high as 4.45% by the middle of next year.

Australian 10-year government bond yields have shot up by almost 50 basis points in the past five sessions to the highest since June.

However, it still outperformed US Treasuries with the yield spread narrowing to 15 bps.

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