SINGAPORE: US oil may consolidate in a range of $104.87-$114.66 per barrel for one or two days before falling again.

The support at $104.87 is strengthened by a similar one of $104.50.

These supports are likely to work together to stop the fall again and trigger a bounce weaker than the one from the March 9 low of $103.63.

The depth of the fall from $130.50 suggests a completion of a five-wave cycle from $62.43.

Over the next one or two weeks, oil is expected to fall towards the bottom of the wave (4) around $88.43.

A break below $104.87 could confirm the continuation of the downtrend towards $98.82. On the daily chart, oil broke a support at $114.89 after failing to break a resistance at $128.61.

It is highly likely to fall towards the next support at $94.86, near the bottom of a wave iv.

The depth of the fall so far looks good enough to confirm a reversal of the uptrend from $10.07.

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