SINGAPORE: Palm oil may fall to 4,287 ringgit per tonne, as it failed again to rise above the May 12 high of 4,525 ringgit.

The failure suggests an extension of the wave 4, which will be sideways, alternate with the sharp wave 2. Most likely, the wave 4 will be shaped into a flat pattern, consisting of three waves that are roughly equal in length.

A break below 4,287 ringgit may open the way towards 4,196 ringgit. Resistance is at 4,450 ringgit, a break above which could lead to a gain into 4,525-4,606 ringgit range.

Palm edges up as rival oils gain, exports strengthen

On the daily chart, the contract failed twice to break a resistance at 4,493 ringgit. The failure significantly increases the chance of a fall towards 4,239 ringgit, the 186.4% projection level of an upward wave C from 1,939 ringgit.

It could be too early to conclude the formation of a top around this resistance. A break below 4,239 ringgit may signal the reversal of the uptrend from the June 18 low of 3,251 ringgit.

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