As summer saunters in, the air is heavy with trepidation. Pakistan is about to open all commercial activities and public places in 10 days while still reporting over 1,500 cases every day (7-day rolling: 1,356). Across the globe, the chants to “flatten the curve” have quickly been replaced with “get the jab” and all efforts have shifted in that direction. Pakistan it seems is trying to balance both without much success in either — so far.
New cases are nowhere near other countries such as Brazil that recorded 71,000 cases on Mar 3 or United States that despite the most promising vaccination drive still recorded 65,000 cases on the day. Or a number of other countries including France, Italy, India, Poland and Turkey that are all registering over 10,000 new covid cases every day. However, inoculations in these countries have also been swifter.
Meanwhile, vaccinations will not cover even 25 percent of the urban population once they all arrive. 17 million doses of AstraZeneca are promised to arrive by July, of which 7 million are set to arrive this month. The first shipment of Sinopharm vaccine from China constituted 500,000 doses which covered 250,000 healthcare workers — 2 doses for each person. In theory, 7 million+ Chinese vaccine already used will cover about 9 percent of the urban population. But this also means Pakistan has to keep fighting on “flattening the curve” front until the free vaccine from Covax arrives which will take another few months.
A major challenge is the inoculation process itself and the inadequacy of the public health infrastructure that may not be able to handle vaccinating 20 percent of the population. The anti-vax sentiment in the country is almost as scary as the pandemic too — the polio drive is a living example. In fact, a Gallup survey found that 49 percent of the survey respondents said they would opt out of the jab. Emboldened by propaganda videos and conspiracy theories, if half the potential recipients of the vaccine balk at the idea of the vaccine — especially those at high-risk of catching the virus, spreading the virus and/or experiencing the more dangerous symptoms of the virus — the outcome would be more than worrying. Specially if the leftover restrictions and precautions are also removed.
Doomsday scenarios notwithstanding, it seems consumers are getting less worried, not more. Most restrictions on mobility were lifted several months ago and people have gone back to the office after months of working-from-home. For those that have managed to stave off the virus (or be asymptotic, so blissfully unaware), life has more or less gone back to normal. In Dec, both the SBP’s Consumer Confidence Index and Gallup’s quarterly survey of the same name showed consumers moving toward optimism about the future of the economy and their livelihoods (and financial health) since the start of this erratic year. If perceptions were considered to be the final verdict on the subject, one would rejoice. Alas they are not.