Congratulations to President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris for their historic win in the 2020 US elections, now it is time for world leaders to prepare for a much more involved America under the traditionalist leadership of Biden and Harris come 2021. The South Asian neighborhood, in particular, is set to undergo a myriad of changes due to a radically different relationship with the US when Biden takes the helm in Washington.
Biden’s foreign policies are predicated upon working with the US’s traditional allies who have been isolated for the last 4 years by Trump’s isolationist foreign policies. This might be a welcome change for some while an emerging threat for others. Trump’s America first based foreign policy has reaped mixed results, specifically in the greater South Asian neighborhood. His decision to pull out of Afghanistan has been a welcome change that has allowed space for the intra-Afghan peace talks in Doha. However, on the other hand, Iran’s situation with the US has deteriorated significantly and has become a hot zone with the potential for war.
There are 4 major issues that will shape Biden’s relationship with Pakistan: the China-US relationship, the Intra-Afghan peace talks, the Iran nuclear deal, and Kashmir.
Biden has rallied support for his harsh stance on China. He has consistently labeled Trump as “too soft” on China and has vowed to implement “swift economic sanctions” against America’s main competitor if elected. Biden’s top foreign policy advisor, Tony Blinken, has also mirrored Biden’s stance on China by advocating for further sanctions on China due to its crackdown in Hong Kong. Biden and his team are big proponents of multilateral diplomacy and Biden has laid out a coalition-building diplomatic strategy to apply pressure on China by stating that “the most effective way to meet that challenge is to build a united front of friends and partners to challenge China’s abusive behavior”. The coalition against China will inevitably involve the US’s traditional allies including the largest democracy in the world and China’s main regional competitor – India. Hence, with Biden at the helm, the India-China standoff can become more pronounced with India taking a lead role, with US backing, to challenge China’s regional influence. This form of coalition building might also force Pakistan to drop the current balancing act between the two powers and pick a side that will put policymakers in Islamabad in a very difficult spot. The already tense neighborhood due to the India-Pakistan rivalry may become a more pronounced proxy battleground for the China-US battle for regional supremacy.
As Americans bemoan the internal situation of their country, strife with a raging pandemic and racial tensions, some countries have significantly benefited due to Trump’s policies. One of these countries is Afghanistan. Trump administration’s negotiations and commitment to complete US withdrawal from Afghanistan saw the first-ever peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan leadership on 12 September 2020 in Doha. Trump reiterated his commitment to bringing troops back from Afghanistan in a tweet on October 8th, which has widely been criticized as an electioneering tactic by the Pentagon but it showed that the subject was still on his agenda. However, any predictions on the intra-Afghan peace talks might be futile as the Biden administration’s commitment to the talks remains in question. Biden has indicated that he might not uphold the central Taliban objective of complete US withdrawal from Afghanistan as he supports keeping a small number of special forces and intelligence assets in Afghanistan through military bases in Pakistan. This is a strategy he calls “counter-terrorism plus” which focuses on deploying small special forces and aggressive airstrikes rather than large troop deployments. On the contrary to continuing the peace talks, Biden may increase drone strikes in the country. Hence, with Biden’s administration, the long-awaited Afghan peace process may be on its way to get derailed even further.
Iranian leadership might be the most eager for Biden to take the helm as its relationship with the US has only become more volatile since Trump has come to power. Biden has been adamant that he wants to restore the Iran nuclear deal, a sentiment which has been echoed by Biden’s potential top advisor on Iran, Colin Kahl. Kahl has advocated that once in power the US should “signal a willingness to reenter the nuclear deal as a starting point for new negotiations”. However, the Biden administration will have its work cut out as there will be a trust deficit with the Iranian leadership due to the economic and political losses Iran carried as a result of the US pullout from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018. Iran has even recently turned to China for support in the absence of the US which the Biden administration will be vary of. However, analysts in Iran believe that the Iranian leadership wants to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. Hence, the Biden administration may push to reenter the deal but may have to put mechanisms in place to placate any Iranian leadership worries of another US U-turn.
One issue that might give Pakistani leadership more hope is Kashmir. With Biden and Harris both speaking out against human rights violations in India, especially against Muslims, Pakistani leadership may find a sympathetic ear in Washington over the Kashmir dispute. However, due to India’s prominent role in the US’s challenge to China’s ever-growing power and India’s position in the new Quad dynamic, Biden and his advisors might find it easier to have conversations on Kashmir behind closed doors.
Biden’s foreign policy agenda revolves around bringing the US back into the international arena by working with America’s traditional allies. The work done to pull America out of the hotspots around the world under the Trump presidency might be undone in a matter of months come 2021 and old alliances might be reinvigorated. Policymakers in Islamabad must start planning to take advantage of some of the positives from the Biden administration and strategies to overcome the impending roadblocks.
Waleed Nasir is a current graduate student at the University of Oxford pursuing a Masters in South Asian studies. He graduated with a degree in International Relations from Brown University in the United States of America. Previously, he has worked as a Consultant at the Strategic Policy Planning Cell in the National Security Division of Pakistan. His main research focus is Pakistan-US relations and South Asian regional politics