US natural gas little changed on cooler weather

20 Oct, 2020

NEW YORK: US natural gas futures were little changed on Friday as forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand and a rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports offset an increase in output after Hurricane Delta.

Front-month gas futures fell 0.2 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $2.773 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

That put the contract down about 1% this week after rising almost 34% over the prior three weeks.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states jumped to 87.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Thursday from a 26-month low of 82.4 bcfd over the weekend as wells shut for Delta returned to service.

As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 85.1 bcfd this week to 90.3 bcfd next week and 98.0 bcfd in two weeks.

The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 6.8 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September, despite hurricane and maintenance outages this month.

That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse cargo cancellations.

Previously, US exports fell from March-July as coronavirus-related demand destruction caused prices in Europe and Asia to collapse to record lows and buyers to cancel around 175 US cargoes.

Front-month gas prices in Europe and Asia were trading at their highest since December 2019 and January 2020, respectively, putting them both more than $2 per mmBtu over the US Henry Hub benchmark.

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