ISLAMABAD: Unemployment could reach 21.5 percent in 2020 compared to 8.9 percent in 2019 as more than 2.3 million youths in Pakistan are feared to lose their jobs in case of a long-term containment scenario implemented to curtail the coronavirus spread.
This has been stated in a report titled "Tackling the Covid-19 Youth Employment Crisis in Asia and the Pacific" co-published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
The report explains the six-month scenario of such containment saying that the job losses for youth may equal 6.1 million in India, followed by Pakistan with 2.3 million.
For most countries, a six-month period would reach into September because containment started near the beginning of April.
The report stated that youth unemployment rate was 8.9 percent in Pakistan during 2019, which may reach 17.3 percent in short containment, and 21.5 percent in long containment during 2020.
Indonesia may see lower job losses (1.9 million) than Pakistan, despite the former having a larger youth workforce. This is likely the result of higher concentrations of youth in badly-hit sectors and lower labour productivity in Pakistan.
In many countries restrictions will be lifted, and businesses will have resumed full operations before September, the report said.
In another scenario with three-month containment, the report considers that the largest losses are expected in countries with the largest workforce.
However, the start date of serious containment measures and the severity of restrictions are also significant for these estimates.
As per this scenario, the equivalent of 4.1 million youth jobs may be lost in India, followed by Pakistan with 1.5 million.
The report was of the view that these countries have a larger population and workforce and they imposed stringent containment measures early on as well.
As containment measures have continued to be in force after three months in many countries, despite some relaxation, the short containment results are best viewed as a lower bound of job losses.
The report estimated approximately 10 million to 15 million jobs may be lost across 13 countries in Asia and the Pacific in 2020.
These estimates are based on the expected fall in output and consequent decrease in labour demand for the year relative to a non-COVID-19 scenario.
As far as unemployment rate projections are concerned, while an increase in unemployment is expected across all 13 countries, in Pakistan the projected youth unemployment rate is expected to reach at least double the 2019 estimates even in a scenario of short Covid-19 containment.
Youth are expected to lose employment at a faster rate than adults.
The fall in youth employment will be affected by the last-in-first-out process, in which young workers (hired more recently and with less job protection) are likely to lose work at a faster rate than adults.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020