NEW YORK: Brazil's coffee production in 2020 was projected at 59 million bags on Wednesday by the country's statistics agency IBGE, a number that is sharply lower than most projections from analysts and traders.
IBGE said it revised its estimate up by 3.1% from the previous month. The estimate means a production increase of 18.2% from the 2019 crop in the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee.
IBGE's projections are the only official ones available at the moment, since coffee estimates by Conab, the main Brazilian government agency dealing with agricultural projections and food supply issues, have been put on hold due to the new coronavirus pandemic that prevented researchers from visiting coffee fields.
IBGE's view contrasts with other available projections in the market. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates Brazil's 2020 coffee crop at 67.8 million bags. Broker Marex Spectron sees it at 66 million bags. Analyst Safras & Mercado estimates output at 68.1 million bags, a record.
The statistics agency sees arabica coffee production at 44.5 million bags, 4.8% more than seen in June and 28.9% higher than in 2019.
It projects robusta coffee production at 14.5 million bags, 5.8% less than last year.
Coffee prices are hovering around the lowest levels in a year due to large production in Brazil and the prospect of reduced demand as many coffee shops remain closed or operating partially.