Political campaigns have starting surfacing in Kasur, the hometown of two foreign ministers - one is still holding the office and the other still a politician. The political horizon is still unclear, because some politicians have refused to put their cards on the table.
In Kasur, the NA-140 Constituency is the political arena of former foreign minister and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Sardar Asif Ahmad Ali and his contemporary Mian Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri. The other expected candidates in the arena are Dr Zahid Lakhvi, who will have the backing of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), and Public Health Engineering Minister Sardar Hassan Akhtar Mokal, the sitting MPA elected from PP-178.
Political experts believe that 55 percent of the clan of Sardar Asif Ahmad Ali, at the NA-140 Constituency, and his ancestral Mandi Usman Wala village, could play a key role for him in the upcoming elections. The PPP's ideological vote bank also exists there. The former foreign minister never fought the last general elections, but his brother, Sardar Farooq Ahmad Khan, won 18,000 votes for the MPA slot.
Political pundits believe that since Sardar Javed Ashiq Dogar, who had secured around 17,000 votes in the last elections has withdrawn his support and the chances of success for Sardar Asif Ahmad Ali may look slim this time. But Kasur Tehsil Nazim Agha Naveed Hashim Rizvi, who secured over 15,000 votes in the last elections, has stopped supporting Sardar Ahmad Ali in the coming elections.
The political experts say Mehmood Kasuri is facing a tough situation since the PML has embroiled in an internal conflict. MPA and Minister for Public Health Engineering Sardar Hassan Akhtar Mokal has said that he will contest the elections against Kasuri and in this regard, he had arranged several press conferences in coming days.
Whatever the decision Mokal has taken, it will certainly please Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, who claims Kasuri won the last general elections because he had supported him. This may create a difficult situation for Kasuri because Mokal has an affiliation with Malik Muhammad Ahmad Khai and Sardar Ashiq Dogar, who won 22,000 and 20,000 votes in the last elections.
Now the only option left with Kasuri is his affiliation with Dr Zahid Lakhvi whose father Maulana Moeen-ud-Din Lakhvi refusing to contest the elections and won 49,399 votes against Kasuri's 50,318 votes in the last elections. Confirmed sources say Dr Zahid Lakhvi has rejected a ministry offered by the ruling PML for supporting Kasuri. Dr Zahid has said his cooperation with the PPP is impossible because of ideological differences.
The political experts also believe the Red Mosque event could erode Kasuri's vote bank as several voters in this constituency are religious. The PML-N has refused to announce any candidate in the constituency.
Mian Bakhtiar Kasuri, Kasuri's brother who belongs to the ARD camp, has succeeded in bringing Kasur and Chunian Tehsil Nazim into the ruling PML fold. However, he has yet to play his role in supporting his brother. The ARD-backed district Nazim, Rana Muhammad Hayat Khan, has a significant vote bank in the NA-140 constituency.
The NA-139 constituency may prove a safe haven for the Kasuris but there they will have to face sitting MNA Chaudhry Manzoor Ahmad of the PPP, who secured over 28,000 votes in the last elections, while Kasuri could win only 15,000 votes.
This time Kasuri has got the support of District Naib Nazim Haji Maqsood Sabir Ansari and Tehsil Nazim Agha Naveed Hashim Rizvi. Experts say Maqsood Sabir, whose father Haji Ghulam Sabir Ansari has been elected MPA for the five consecutive terms, may prove beneficial because of his heavy vote bank, while Rizvi has a weak influence in the urban areas.
But overall, the chances of a victory for the foreign minister seem unclear and the political analysts claim he should join some influential politicians, adding that there is no doubt that Kasuri, after losing his seat from NA-139, worked hard to develop Kasur.