A five-wave cycle from the Sept. 30 high of $94.90 has not completed. The gain from the Oct. 16 low of $79.78 was driven by the fourth wave, which failed to extend above a resistance at $84.81, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the Oct. 1 high of $92.96 to $79.78.
This wave will be totally reversed by a downward wave (5), which may have started at the Oct. 16 high of $84.83. The consolidation between $82.89, the 23.6 percent level, and $84.81 has been shaped into a small triangle, which may turn out to be a bearish pattern.
A break above $84.81 will cause a further gain to $86.37, the 50 percent retracement.
The views expressed are his own.
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