No progress? No worries, just don talk about them. This is the approach the government has adopted in its power generation goals among so many other unmet targets. In the Economic Survey 2013-14 last year, ambitious targets for power generation through the development of indigenous energy resources particularly coal and hydel were set, which were to add over 16,000MW of power to the national grid over the next five years. However, the reality is at odds (see illustration).
If everything was as hunky dory and smooth as depicted in last years issue of Economic Survey, the power generation capacity would ideally have increased by over 2000MW by the end of FY15. Not exaggerating the paucity of such tall claims to create false hopes, the government has been able to add less than five percent of what was planned for FY14 and FY15 - 100MW by Quaid e Azam Solar Park.
It is satirical that in the latest Economic Survey (Pakistan Economic Survey 2014-15) the government has not even felt the need to pinpoint this discrepancy, let alone an explanation. What is more ironic is that despite the increase in installed capacity, power generation has in fact fallen; the actual figures for the nine-month period from July to March 2015 show that while installed capacity has increased to 23840MW from 23048MW in 9MFY14, power generation has actually decreased to 71712GWh in 9MFY15 from 73435GWh in 9MFY14. This decrease of two percent year-on-year in power generation is not a sign of improvement in the power sector amidst the hyped focus on generation side.
In short, the government has failed to accelerate work on mega projects; some projects have been conveniently forgotten, while others face issues like reaching financial close, irregularities, controversies and mismanagement. Not only is it reflective of governments inefficiency, the delays result in cost escalations like those in Neelam Jehlum and Nandipur power plants.
Also one can see the shift in priorities over the last year. Where coal was one of the key areas of focus for the government, and it still is as per the Economic Survey 2014-15, many coal projects were delayed and shelved particularly in Punjab during the last year. The focus has now shifted to Imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which is definitely a feasible cheaper option, but not at the cost of poor planning, piecemeal homework, and time wastage.
Most of the energy projects, whether coal or renewable are now being hoped to get accomplished under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Total power generation anticipated from three coal projects under CPEC is 2400MW by 2018. The Economic Survey 2014-15 vaguely highlights that the government is committed to add electricity generation of 10400MW to Pakistans national grid by 2017-18, without giving any clear break-up this time. Hindsight suggests that this is somewhat close to the earlier target of 16564MW after scratching off 6600MW of Gaddani Power Park. If this is so, lets see if there are more trimmings the next year as far as generation capacity is concerned.
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Mega Projects in Economic Survey 2013-14
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Year Name of Project Capacity Agency Fuel Current Status
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2014 Guddu 1 243 MW GENCOs Gas Delayed due to gas availability
Nandipur Power Project 425 MW GENCOs Oil Expected June 30, 2015
Guddu 2 243 MW GENCOs Gas Delayed due to gas availability
Quaid e Azam Solar Park (Phase-I) 100 MW PPDB Solar Completed in April 2015
Quaid e Azam Solar Park (Phase-II) 300 MW PPDB Solar no progress
Guddu Steam (3) 261 MW GENCOs Gas no progress
2015 Quaid e Azam Solar Park (Phase-III) 600 MW PPDB Solar no progress
2016 Neelam Jehlum Hydel 969 MW WAPDA Hydel Completion subject to availability of funds
Golen Gol 106 MW WAPDA Hydel Alleged irregularities - Less than 1% complete
Patrind HPP 147 MW PPDB Hydel Under construction - April 2017
2017 Tarbela 4th Extension 1410 MW WAPDA Hydel Under construction
Coal Plant at Sahiwal 1200 MW PPDB Coal Delayed
2018 Coal Plant at Jamshoro 1320 MW GENCOs Coal Delayed/no progress
Thar Coal Plant 1320 MW GENCOs Coal
Coal Plant at Larkana 1320 MW GENCOs Coal
Gaddani Power Park 6600 MW Public+Pvt Coal Abandoned
Upto 2018 Total Generation Addition 16,564 MW
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Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2013-14, BR Research