Markets

Australia & NZ dollars firm, RBA eyed

Published May 6, 2014 Updated May 6, 2014 05:19am

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were firm on Tuesday with investors focused on a policy review by the Reserve Bank of Australia which is expected to signal a further period of steady rates.

The Aussie edged up to $0.9288, from $0.9270 in early trade. was found at $0.9252, Monday's low, with resistance at $0.9332, a key retracement level.

Against the yen, it bounced off a five-week low of 94.22 to last trade at 94.80.

It was inching closer to a peak of 96.52 yen touched last month and faced resistance at 95.08, the 38.2 percent retracement of the April fall.

Relatively subdued market activity should leave the focus squarely on the outcome of Australia's central bank policy meeting at 0430 GMT.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is considered certain to leave its cash rate unchanged at 2.5 percent and maintain a steady policy outlook.

Many market watchers, however, will be looking for any commentary on the level of the Australian dollar, which has remained stubbornly high.

The Aussie has gained more than 4 percent so far this year despite concerns about an economic slowdown in China, Australia's key export market.

In fact, Australian exports to China hit a record in March and were up almost 30 percent on the same month last year.

That helped the country to a trade surplus of A$2.7 billion in the three months to March, implying net exports gave a sizable boost to economic growth.

Australian government bond futures were steady, with the 10-year contract holding near seven-month highs.

It was last at 96.135 and a break above 96.190 would take it to the highest since August.

The premium offered by Australian 10-year yields over 3-year yields has shrunk to its smallest since June around 90 basis points. It was at 135 basis points early in January.

The flattening in the curve reflects in part an easing of inflation fears at home, combined with falling long-term yields in the United States and Europe.

The New Zealand dollar poked up to a one-month high of $0.8705, marking five straight sessions of gains. It also reached a one-month high against the yen and a three-week peak on the euro.

Against a currency basket, the kiwi rose to 80.70, closing in on a post-float high around 81.00 hit last month.

Domestic employment data on Wednesday could further boost the kiwi if the jobless rate edges lower.

Economists forecast a fall to 5.9 percent in the first quarter, which would reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will continue to raise interest rates at its meeting next month.

A strong jobs figure could push the kiwi into the $0.8700 region and test a 2-1/2-year high of $0.8746 hit last month. One potential risk was prices for dairy products, New Zealand's largest export earner, which have fallen nearly 20 percent so far this year.

The country's major producer, Fonterra, holds a regular auction later on Tuesday and a further drop in prices could undermine the kiwi.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler on Wednesday gives a speech on the importance of the dairy industry and markets will be sensitive to any comment about the strength of the kiwi currency.

New Zealand government bonds inched lower, nudging yields a basis point higher across the board.