ICCO trims 2018/19 world cocoa surplus estimate

LONDON: The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Friday trimmed its forecast for the size of an expected global cocoa surplus in the 2018/19 season.

The inter-governmental body, in a quarterly update, forecast a surplus of 36,000 tonnes in 2018/19 (October/September), down slightly from a previous forecast of 39,000 tonnes.

It kept its surplus estimate for the 2017/18 season at 9,000 tonnes.

In terms of global production, it raised its estimate for 2018/19 by 35,000 tonnes to 4.834 million tonnes, with output in Africa, which produces some three quarters of the world's cocoa, seen up 6 percent to 3.706 million tonnes.

The Abidjan-based international body sees output in top grower Ivory Coast up at 2.2 million tonnes in 2018/19 from a 2.15 million tonne estimate previously.

"Although concerns were raised for the (Ivory Coast) mid-crop because of drier conditions during April, as at the time of writing the onset of increased rainfall is expected to boost the mid-crop," it said.

In Ghana, by contrast, production for the 2018/19 season is forecast down at 870,000 tonnes from a previous estimate of 900,000, due to the outbreak of disease and unfavourable weather conditions.

The ICCO increased its world grindings estimate for the current season by 38,000 tonnes to 4.750 million tonnes due to increased demand for high cocoa content products and weak global cocoa prices.

It sees grindings increasing by 6% in Asia and Oceania to 1.1 million tonnes, almost 4% in the Americas to 905,000 tonnes, 2 percent in Europe to 1.748 million tonnes and 2% in Africa to 985,000 tonnes.