SINGAPORE: LME aluminium may break a support at $1,824 per tonne and fall towards $1,736 in the second quarter, as suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis.
The support is provided by the 61.8 percent projection level of a downward wave C from $2,267.
This wave has briefly travelled below a support at $1,824. Chances are it may extend to $1,551.
A head-and-shoulders developing from the December 2017 high of $2,290.25 indicates a more aggressive target around $1,240. Over the next three months, the realistic target will be $1,736.
The bounce triggered by the support at $1,824 is classified as a pullback towards $1,924, the 61.8 percent retracement. The pullback could have completed.
A rise above the March 20 high of $1,951 could confirm an extension of the pullback towards $1,993. Strategically, the target at $1,736 will become valid when the metal falls below the March 11 low of $1,845.
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Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
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