Soybeans jump to post-harvest highs on US-China trade truce

CHICAGO: US soybean futures rallied to their highest point since at least August on Monday, joining a broad rally in commodity and equity prices after Washington and Beijing sealed a truce in a trade war that has halted nearly all U.S. soy shipments to the world's top importer.

Soybean prices, however, set back from early highs due to uncertainty about the size of any new Chinese purchases of U.S. beans ahead of what is expected to be a record-large Brazilian harvest in the coming months.

At a gathering of G20 countries in Argentina on Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to hold off on new tariffs during a 90-day truce period, while Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping pledged to purchase more agricultural products from U.S. farmers immediately, the White House said.

"The market believes that there has been a substantial change in the narrative," said Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale Inc. "But lots of questions remain: the amount they may be buying and it may be limited to just the Chinese government."

Chinese soybean traders say Beijing will need to drop its 25-percent tariff on U.S. shipments before a promise to buy a "very substantial" amount of U.S. soybeans can be fulfilled. U.S. soybeans remain at a premium to Brazilian shipments, which are not subject to the tariff.

INTL FCStone on Monday raised its Brazilian soy crop estimate slightly and pegged the country's soybean exports at 75 million tonnes in the 2018/19 season.

Chicago Board of Trade January soybeans were up 13-1/4 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $9.08 per bushel by 11:33 a.m. CST (1733 GMT), after hitting a peak of $9.23-3/4. It was the contract's highest level since Aug. 9 and the highest for a most-active soybean contract since mid-June.

Corn and wheat rallied on spillover support.

CBOT March corn was up 4-1/2 cents at $3.82-1/4 a bushel after earlier reaching a high of $3.85-1/4, the loftiest level for a most-active contract  in nearly four months. CBOT March wheat gained 6 cents to $5.21-3/4 a bushel.

Corn futures drew additional support from concerns that rising soybean prices could trigger a shift in spring planting of the oilseed at the expense of corn acreage.