SINGAPORE: CBOT first month wheat is expected to rise to $6.47-1/4 per bushel this quarter, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci ratio analysis.
The downtrend from the February 2008 high of $13.34-1/2 stopped around a key support at $3.73-1/2, the 86.4 percent retracement of the uptrend from $2.22-1/2 to $13.34-1/2.
Working together with the support is another one at $3.85-1/4, the 61.8 percent projection level of a downward C from $9.47-1/4.
The former support at $4.84-3/4 caused a bounce that deeply reversed the drop from $13.34-1/2. The current support zone is stronger, and has triggered another decent bounce.
This bounce from the August 2016 low of $3.59-1/2 is so lasting that it signals a completion of the wave C. The bounce has extended above both a falling trendline and the resistance at $4.84-3/4. It is likely to develop towards $6.47-1/4.
A high-low bottom even suggests a higher target around $7.50, which will only become available when wheat breaks $6.47-1/4.
A break below $4.84-3/4 may cause a loss limited to $4.40, an estimated trendline support.
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