SINGAPORE: New York second month cocoa may seek a support at $1,909 per tonne, and then bounce towards the range of $2,107-$2,304 this quarter.
The support is identified as the 61.8 percent projection level of a downward wave C from $2,943. This wave could travel into a range of $1,270-$1,909.
A retracement analysis on the uptrend from $707 to $3,775 reveals a strong support at $1,879, the 61.8 percent level, which triggered a fierce wave B. This barrier may stop the fall again and cause a bounce.
It is highly likely that the bounce is limited to $2,304. As a result, cocoa may be range-bound between $1,879-$2,304 in the fourth quarter.
In an extreme case, the wave C could be so strong that it easily travels below the support at $1,879. Under this scenario, the next support at $1,665 will take effect to temporarily stop this wave and trigger a pullback towards $1,879.
A break above $2,241 could lead to again into the range of $2,548-$2,699.
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