PARIS: Grain trade association Coceral cut its outlook for the European Union's soft wheat harvest this year, joining other forecasters in warning of stress to crops from dry weather in northern parts of the bloc.
The lobby group on Monday forecast EU soft wheat production of 138.8 million tonnes this year, down from its initial estimate in March of 140.5 million and further below estimated 2017 output of 141.6 million tonnes.
"Reductions have been made for Germany, Scandinavia, all Baltic countries as well as Romania due to the ongoing dryness," Coceral said in a statement.
It cut projected soft wheat production in Germany to 23.3 million tonnes from 24.4 million previously, while among the Baltic states it expected Lithuanian output of 3.1 million tonnes, down from its previous forecast of 3.5 million.
Hot, dry spells in northern Europe this spring have added to weather worries in wheat markets as they have coincided with dryness in other exporting zones like North America, Australia and the Black Sea region.
However, in a sign of contrasting conditions in Europe, Coceral revised upwards its forecasts for wheat and barley crops in France and above all Spain.
For France, the EU's biggest grain grower, projected French soft wheat production was raised to 37.4 million tonnes from 36.6 million previously, while the expected barley crop was increased to 12.4 million from 12.2 million.
In Spain, Coceral increased its soft wheat crop forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 6.4 million and its barley crop outlook by 2.1 million tonnes to 9.5 million.
The much improved outlook for Spain helped raise expected EU-wide barley production to 60.8 million tonnes from 60.3 million estimated in March.
This offset reduced expectations for countries like Denmark, for which Coceral cut its barley forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 4.0 million.
For Poland, which has endured dryness in some regions like other countries around the Baltic Sea, Coceral nonetheless raised its projections, adding 500,000 tonnes to its wheat and barley forecasts, to 11.0 million and 3.9 million respectively.
Projected EU maize production was cut to 60.3 million tonnes from 61.8 million, with Coceral citing "a bad start in several countries and a downward revision in the Romanian area."
In oilseeds, Coceral reduced its forecast for EU rapeseed production in 2018, to 21.0 million tonnes from 22.0 million.
It did not give reasons but the reduction was broadly in line with revisions made by other forecasters due to unfavourable weather for rapeseed throughout the season.
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