MANILA: London aluminium futures climbed more than 1 percent to their highest in nearly seven years on Tuesday, buoyed by growing worries over tighter supply in the aftermath of US sanctions on major Russian producer Rusal.
Concerns over the impact of the sanctions, which began on April 6, have pushed up aluminium prices in London by over 20 percent so far this month. Aluminium futures in Shanghai rose to their strongest in almost three months.
Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.1 percent at $2,425.50 a tonne by 0726 GMT, after earlier hitting its strongest since September, 2011 at $2,435.
"We think an aluminium price of around $2,250/tonne is fair, as it takes into account the impact of Rusal's displaced aluminium," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. Rusal accounts for 6-7 percent of global aluminium supply.
"But an overreaction was always on the card as buyers look to secure aluminium in the short term."
SHANGHAI ALUMINIUM: The most-traded June aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose as far as 14,985 yuan ($2,387) a tonne, its highest since Jan. 29. It closed up 2.4 percent at 14,920 yuan.
SUPPLY SHORTAGE: The global aluminium market could face supply shortages because of US sanctions on Russia and Norsk Hydro's production cuts in Brazil, Hydro's chief executive told Reuters.
FILLING THE VOID: "Other players will almost certainly step in to fill the void, but almost all producers, apart from Chinese ones that are arguably being held back, are currently operating flat out and so it is hard to see where the extra production will come from, at least over the short term," INTL FCStone consultant Edward Meir said.
RIO TINTO: Apart from saying it would declare force majeure on certain customer contracts, Rio Tinto said last week it was reviewing Rusal's 20 percent stake in the Queensland Alumina refinery, Rusal's supply and offtake arrangements, bauxite sales to Rusal's refinery in Ireland and offtake contracts for alumina.
GLENCORE: Also last week, a source told Reuters that Swiss trader Glencore will declare force majeure on some aluminium supply.
CHINA GDP: China's economy grew 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018, slightly faster than expected, buoyed by strong consumer demand and surprisingly robust property investment despite continued measures to tame rising home prices.
COPPER: London copper was off 0.3 percent at $6,888.50 a tonne and its Shanghai counterpart rose 0.8 percent to end at 50,820 yuan.
CHINA STEEL: Chinese steel producers ramped up output in March to the highest level since September, with mills in the world's top market for the metal rushing to boost operations after winter restrictions to prevent smog were lifted in the middle of the month.
MARKETS: Asia stocks wavered after data showed both hot and cold patches in the Chinese economy, but losses were limited as investors turned their focus to corporate earnings from Syria.
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