Oil falls on Iran war uncertainty, US Democrats' midterm sweep

LONDON:  Oil prices fell on Wednesday in a volatile session as investors awaited Washington’s next move in the US-Israeli war on Iran, after Democrats captured control of Congress from President Donald Trump’s Republicans in the midterm elections.

Brent futures fell $1.75, or 0.7%, to $101.85 a barrel at 1034 GMT, falling $2 earlier in the session. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.18, or 1.2%, to $94.91. Both had risen $1 earlier.

In the previous session, Brent settled at its lowest level in nearly four weeks as traders weighed talks to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran.

President Donald Trump acknowledged that the US-Israeli war on Iran played a role in his party’s sweeping defeat in the midterm elections, as Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

“President Trump’s conflicting signals, with military strikes continuing alongside statements downplaying further escalation, have made it difficult for traders to build strong directional conviction,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, adding that profit-taking and a reduction in speculative long positions were justified after the sharp rally in October.

The US had carried out “defensive” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island targeting surface-to-air missiles used against US assets, a US official said on Tuesday.

Iran, US still far apart on deal; Trump says ready but in no hurry for strikes

Markets remained on watch for any progress in talks to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, as Qatar stepped up mediation efforts to avert an escalation of attacks after the US elections. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the United States remain far from a deal to end their war.

US President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran.

Meanwhile flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to ship-tracking data from Vortexa, marking a drop from 18.9 million bpd in September but still representing roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.

“The continued recovery in crude shipments from the Middle East has begun to weigh on physical cargo prices, potentially helping to accelerate the normalisation of refining margins and, ultimately, lower fuel prices,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

“However, for consumers to feel the full benefit, refined product exports from Middle Eastern refineries must also recover. So far, this is one area where the rebound in flows remains notably subdued, suggesting that relief at the pump may take longer to materialise.”

Iran sees only unacceptable ideas in latest mediation to end war, official says

In the US, crude stocks fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended October 30, market sources said on Wednesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Eight analysts polled by Reuters had expected, on average, a rise of about 880,000 barrels in crude inventories.

Official data from the US Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) on Wednesday.