Chicago wheat retreats toward four-month low on Russian export outlook

CANBERRA: Chicago wheat futures retreated on Monday, back towards a four-month low hit last week, as expectations of increased Russian wheat exports outweighed strong demand for US grain.

Corn and soybean futures rose after declines in recent weeks attracted bargain buying. The most-traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.3 percent at USD6.01-3/4 a bushel at 0648 GMT.

Prices have fallen around 25 percent from a high in early September as speculative investors unwound long positions and turned bearish. Expectations of increased Black Sea wheat shipments have grown after sources said last week that Russia had allowed grain export vessels to leave the Sea of Azov for the first time since July 10.

The disruption to Black Sea exports caused by the Russia-Ukraine war pushed grain prices sharply higher in August, but global supplies have not proved as scarce as some had predicted.

US wheat and soybean exports have been running at a strong pace recently, partly due to lower prices. Wheat should rally again because attacks on shipping in the Black Sea have not stopped and the United States and Iran are likely to revive hostilities after this week’s US elections, pushing up energy costs, said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia.

But any rally in wheat will be capped by expectations of large harvests in Australia, Argentina and the United States over the coming months, Pistoia said.

The European Commission on Friday trimmed its wheat and corn harvest estimates. In other crops, CBOT corn was up 0.3 percent at USD4.49 a bushel and soybeans rose 0.1 percent to USD12.35-1/2 a bushel.

Corn futures have fallen nearly 20 percent from their September highs and soybeans have lost around 8 percent.