LONDON: Raw sugar futures on ICE rose on Monday, having reached a 19-month peak last week on worries over excess El Nino-linked rains in top grower Brazil, while coffee and cocoa fell.
SUGAR
Raw sugar rose 2.3 percent to 20.72 cents per lb by 1355 GMT, having touched 21.24 cents last Wednesday.
Analyst Green Pool said record El Nino-linked rains in September and more expected in October are a “stark reminder of how dependent the market is on Brazilian output and exports”. There have been reports of waterlogged cane in Brazil.
At the same time, the sugar outlook beyond Brazil is worsening, including in key growers India and the European Union.
The United States Department of Agriculture has cut its 2026/27 forecast for the EU’s sugar output by 8 percent following this summer’s drought, and trimmed its 2026/27 US sugar production forecast by 0.8 percent to the lowest since 2019/20.
White sugar rose 2.4 percent to USD555.60 a metric ton.
COFFEE
Arabica coffee fell 0.8 percent to USD2.8480 per lb, having lost 0.6 percent last week. Top grower Brazil’s September green coffee exports rose 3.2 percent to 3.58 million bags, although lower arabica shipments limited growth, industry group Cecafe said.
Colombia’s coffee production fell 15 percent in the 2025/26 coffee year to 12.65 million bags as adverse weather and lower yields weighed. The strong pace of Brazil exports is keeping a lid on coffee despite concerns El Nino could bring dry conditions to Brazil that would hurt the 2027/28 crop. For the week ahead, however, there are ample rains forecast for Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela, said broker ADMIS. Robusta coffee fell 0.8 percent to USD3,443 a ton.
COCOA
London cocoa fell 0.4 percent to 4,230 pounds per ton, having closed little changed last week. Cocoa is under pressure as estimates for a large global surplus in 2025/26 season are outweighing concerns over expected adverse El Nino-linked weather in 2026/27.
Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast stood at 23,000 metric tons in the week ending October 11, exporters estimated, down 52 percent compared to the same week last year. The weather in Ivory Coast continued to be dry last week, deepening concerns over supply for the September-to-February main crop, farmers said. New York cocoa fell 0.6 percent to USD5,630 a ton.
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