Rabi season: MNFSR to assess water availability, rainfall forecast

ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR) will assess the availability of water, agricultural inputs, and the rainfall forecast for the 2026–27 Rabi season during the next meeting of the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) to be held in the first week of October.

A senior official from the MNFSR told the correspondents that the ministry has not yet received water availability data for the Rabi season from the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), though it is expected to be delivered before the FCA meeting. The FCA will also review the performance of Kharif crops and set production targets for the 2026–27 Rabi crops, the official added.

He said that representatives of provincial agriculture departments, IRSA, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), ZaraiTaraqiati Bank Ltd (ZTBL), National Fertiliser Development Centre (NFDC), Agriculture Policy Institute (API), Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department (FSC&RD), Department of Plant Protection (DPP), Federal Water Management (FWM), Pakistan Oil Seed Board (POSB) and PARC will attend the meeting.

Dr. Shakeel Ahmed Khan, former wheat commissioner for the Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR), while talking to Business Recorder, said that if the country faceswater shortage it will have a negative impact on the country’s largest Rabi crop and will affect wheat production, but if sufficient rains occur in the country in February-March 2027 the crop target maybe reached.

Dr. Aslam Gill, an agriculture expert, said that it would be premature to project the impact of a water shortage on Rabi crops though a shortage has been recorded in the country’s reservoirs.

Total storage in the two major reservoirs reportedly peaked at 11.6MAF on September 9, when Tarbela remained full at its 5.8MAF capacity between Aug 9 and Sept 9 while Mangla touched 5.733MAF on September 9.

Both reservoirs started depleting since then, with total storage falling below 9.5MAF ahead of the Rabi season, the lowest carryover since 2021.

The recent rains would likely maintain moisture for wheat sowing, and if sufficient rains occur in February and March, it would help offset the water shortage, he said.

He said that the provincial governments need to take effective measures to increase the wheat sowing area compared to last year’s.

Dr. Muhammad Azeem Khan, former Chairman of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), stated that residual moisture from the recent rains will support wheat sowing, particularly in rain-fed and irrigated areas. Additionally, tubewells in Punjab’s irrigated regions will compensate for the projected water shortages during the Rabi season.

As per the FCA meeting held on April 14, the country produced 29.31 million tons of wheat on an area of 9.385 million hectares during the 2025–26 Rabi season, falling slightly below the target of 29.678 million tons.

According to PMD seasonal agro-climate outlook, the month of October 2026 presents a more optimistic scenario, with most regions of the country projected to receive near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation.

Precipitation outlook for November 2026 suggests a predominantly above-normal rainfall pattern across northern and northwestern Pakistan, with the most significant positive anomalies anticipated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and northern Punjab.

The central and western regions of Balochistan and Punjab are expected to receive generally near-normal to slightly above normal precipitation, it says.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026