Argentina set for near-record farm dollar windfall as global supply shocks lift grain exports

ARGENTINA: Argentina is on track for a near-record farm export windfall next year as strong crop prices, a bumper harvest and supply disruptions in rival exporting regions boost grain shipments and hard-currency inflows, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Friday.

The farm sector could bring in about USD40 billion in export dollars in 2027, which would be the second-highest annual total on record behind only 2022, according to the report.

Farm exports are Argentina’s main source of foreign currency, crucial for replenishing central bank reserves, stabilizing the peso and supporting government finances.

Rosario projects Argentina’s 2026/27 total grain harvest at 156 million metric tons, one of the largest ever. International prices for corn, wheat and soy have been supported by conflict-related supply risks in the Black Sea, where disruption to Russian and Ukrainian exports has tightened availability, the report said. Argentine farmers have benefited from the disruption, the exchange said in a separate report, with corn sales above 1 million tons per week for four straight weeks and wheat export commitments climbing to their highest level in five years for this point in the season. Demand out of Asia has been notable, with buyers such as Indonesia turning to Argentine crops.

Rosario also said export tax revenue from grains and by products could rise to USD5.48 billion in 2027, up 16percent from this year, even though tax rates are due to decline.