NEW YORK: US natural gas futures edged up to a five-week high on Monday on forecasts for the weather to remain hotter than normal through mid-September and expectations the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants will rise in coming weeks.
Gas futures were also supported by a 3percent rise in oil prices after Iran resumed military attacks.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 2.0 cents, or 0.7percent, to USD2.908 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since July 23.
For the month, the contract was on track to gain about 5percent in August after dropping about 16percent in July.
With futures up about 8percent over the past three weeks, speculators last week boosted the number of long futures and options contracts on the NYMEX to their highest since September 2021, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report.
Looking ahead, however, the premium of futures for November over October fell to its lowest since March 2025, a sign the market is not too worried about supplies meeting demand this winter.
Traders use the October-November spread to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand.
October is the last month of the April-October summer cooling season when demand for gas is generally low and utilities inject gas into storage. November is the first month of the November-March winter heating season when demand for the fuel is higher and utilities pull gas from storage.
It would be unusual for a summer season month like October to trade over a winter month like November.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 111.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in July.
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