YOGYAKARTA, (Indonesia): A global surplus of cocoa is expected to narrow over the upcoming 2026/2027 season with production affected by El Nino weather conditions and grinding levels driven up by robust demand, a forecast by commodity price specialists Transgraph Consulting showed on Thursday.
The cocoa surplus in the 2026/2027 season is estimated to reach 80,000 metric tons, shrinking from an estimated surplus of 415,000 tons in the 2025/2026 season ending in September, said Nagaraj Meda, chairman and managing director of Transgraph Consulting.
Cocoa production in the 2026/2027 season is estimated at 4.8 million tons, a 4.6percent drop annually compared to the 5.1 million tons recorded in 2025/2026. “So after a good production recovery, we are going to face the headwinds and if the El Niño becomes severe then you may have further reduction in the production,” Meda told an industry conference organised by the Indonesia Cocoa Association. Output from top producer Ivory Coast is predicted to fall by 10percent next season, while production from Ecuador and Ghana, which is struggling with heavy rainfall, is also expected to ease.
In Indonesia, Asia’s largest cocoa producer, the probability of below average rainfall is very high in Sulawesi and Sumatra, Meda said, forecasting 200,000 tons of cocoa output from the country next season, down from 210,000 tons.
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