CBoT wheat climbs on Ukraine war risks, bullish USDA global stocks view

CHICAGO: US and European wheat futures rose on Friday to their highest levels since late May as traders reacted to signs of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and outlooks for tightening global wheat stocks, analysts said.

Corn and soybeans rose after a monthly report from the US Department of Agriculture projected smaller-than-expected world inventories of grains and oilseeds.

As of 1:14 p.m. CDT (1814 GMT), Chicago Board of Trade September wheat was up 20-1/2 cents, or 3.3percent, at USD6.40-1/4 per bushel, after reaching USD6.49-1/4, its highest since May 27. Euronext September wheat added 5.5percent.

CBOT December corn was up 9 cents, or 2percent, at USD4.61 a bushel and November soybeans were up 8 cents, or 0.7percent, at USD11.89-1/2 a bushel.

Wheat led the way up on worries about supplies from Russia, the world’s top exporter of the food grain. Russia temporarily stopped shipping through the Don-Azov channel, a waterway linking the Don River with the Sea of Azov, two grain export industry sources said, following a Ukrainian attack on 13 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov on Friday. The move could affect almost one quarter of Russian wheat exports passing through the Sea of Azov, experts estimated. Meanwhile, the USDA lowered its forecast of global wheat supplies remaining at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year to 272.84 million metric tons, lower than most analysts expected and a drop from 279.04 million tons the prior year.

The USDA also projected that US wheat farmers would harvest the smallest wheat crop in 56 years. “So you’ve got a tightening world supply of wheat due to the production issues, but now you’ve got the big share of world wheat just having a hard time getting out to the market,” said Jim McCormick, chief operating officer with US-based AgMarket.net.

The USDA on Friday left its estimate of the European Union’s wheat harvest unchanged, while European analysts, including commodity data firm Expana and grain trade association Coceral, lowered their estimates this week following a severe heat wave.

CBOT corn and soybean futures followed the firm trend in wheat, with USDA’s projection for a year-on-year drop in world corn and soy supplies lending support. The USDA lowered its forecast of US 2026/27 corn ending stocks more than most analysts expected. For US soybeans, the agency left its 2026/27 stocks forecast unchanged, while most analysts had expected an increase.

The agency’s outlook for tightening US and world grain supplies magnifies the importance of crop weather in the coming weeks, especially in the Midwest corn and soybean belt, said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based US Commodities.

“Your margin of error for the summer is now gone. You need weather to be fairly decent to get the yields,” Roose said.