US job growth likely cooled in June after recent string of big gains

WASHINGTON: US job growth likely slowed to a still-solid clip in June, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.3percent for a fourth straight month, consistent with a stable labour market.

The anticipated moderation would follow three consecutive months of strong and above-expectations gains in non-farm payrolls. Economists expected the Labour Department’s closely watched employment report on Thursday to keep a September interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve on the table amid rising inflation from the US-led war with Iran.

The report is being released a day early due to Friday’s public holiday marking the United States’ 250th anniversary of independence on Saturday. “A few months ago, I was actually worried because we had lost jobs in five months,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “We’ve seen the labour market firm up over the past three months, and I don’t see any particular imbalance. We’re in this very tiresome phrase of ‘no hire, no fire’ labour market.”

Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 110,000 jobs last month after rising 172,000 in May, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. Estimates ranged from as low as 25,000 to as high as 200,000. Economists estimated the economy needs to create between zero and 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

The so-called break-even rate has dropped because of an immigration crackdown that has reduced the labour force, keeping the unemployment rate stable. Payrolls increased 214,000 and 179,000 in March and April, boosting the monthly average job gains in the three months through May to 188,000 compared to only 63,000 during the same period in 2025. Economists struggled to explain the improvement in job gains, but most agreed that a historically low level of layoffs was a big part of the increase in payrolls. Despite facing uncertainties stemming first from tariffs last year and more recently the Middle East conflict, companies have been reluctant to let go of workers, after struggling to find labour in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic.

The strength in payrolls has not been mirrored in other labour market surveys, including hiring plans by small businesses.