Global uncertainty, oil volatility to drive inflation in Pakistan
Pakistan's inflation is significantly influenced by global uncertainties and volatile oil prices, leading to a policy rate hike by the SBP, with future economic resilience expected through continued policy discipline.
- Global factors influencing Pakistan's inflation.
- The State Bank of Pakistan's policy rate increase.
- Expected economic resilience and growth.
ISLAMABAD: The ongoing global situation and volatility in oil prices are likely to influence inflation in Pakistan, according to the 2025–26 Economic Survey released on Thursday.
The Economic Survey said that the global uncertainties, particularly ongoing conflicts and oil price volatility, may influence inflation and macroeconomic conditions in the near term, requiring continued policy vigilance.
The inflation remained contained for most of FY2026, but escalating global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation to 7.3 percent in March 2026.
READ MORE: Pakistan inflation hits 11.7% in May 2026, highest since June 2024
In response, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its policy rate by 100basis points to 11.5 percent in April 2026.
Despite these challenges, continued policy discipline and structural reforms are expected to strengthen resilience and competitiveness, supporting sustainable and inclusive economic growth over the medium term.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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