LONDON: Arabica coffee futures on ICE plumbed fresh 1-1/2-year lows on Wednesday, with dealers focused on the prospect of surplus supplies, while raw sugar rose.
COFFEE
Arabica coffee fell 0.7percent to USD2.5740 per lb at 1221 GMT, after hitting its lowest since November 2024 at USD2.5600. A large harvest in top producer Brazil should contribute to a wide global surplus of 9.5 million bags in 2026/27, up from a 1.2 million bag surplus in 2025/26, Rabobank said.
ICE-certified arabica stocks could, however, remain tight for months before possibly rising by the end of the year, keeping prices volatile, the bank said.
The stocks were at 432,781 bags as of June 2, about half the levels seen a year ago. Non-certified stocks of green or unroasted coffee in Europe fell 3.6percent in April from a year earlier to 6.82 million 60-kg bags, according to data from the European Coffee Federation compiled by the Coffee Trading Academy (CTA). Robusta coffee fell 1.4percent to USD3,417 a ton.
Top robusta grower Vietnam exported 928,000 metric tons of coffee in the first five months of 2026, up around 8percent from the same period a year earlier, government data showed.
COCOA
London cocoa fell 2.6percent to £3,030 per metric ton, having closed up 5.6percent on Tuesday amid supply concerns linked to El Nino. Top grower Ivory Coast has started to slow sales due to concerns about the impact of a looming El Nino weather pattern on output, four sources told Reuters.
The chief of Barry Callebaut, the world’s top cocoa processor and chocolate producer, said El Nino weather conditions could drive up cocoa bean prices by a few thousand pounds per metric ton. New York cocoa fell 1.6percent to USD4,041 a ton, having gained 5.5percent on Tuesday.
SUGAR
Raw sugar rose 0.8percent to 14.49 cents per lb, having settled down 0.5percent on Tuesday. Sugar production in Brazil’s key center-south region is expected to have fallen 14percent in the first half of May compared with a year earlier, while cane and corn-based ethanol output is projected up 19.7percent, an S&P Global Energy survey showed.
A new wave of biofuel innovation is sweeping top sugar grower Brazil, meaning sugarcane or corn-based ethanol fuel could before long be complemented by fuels made from grains, tubers and other exotic feedstocks.
Vietnam has extended anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on some sugar products from Thailand for another five years, the country’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said. White sugar fell 0.9percent to USD445.80 a ton.
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