MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices held firm last week, supported by a strong rouble and a continued reluctance by farmers to sell, although analysts expect a drop in export shipments in June.
The price of Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein content for free-on-board delivery in June to early July was USD245 a metric ton at the end of last week, the same as the week before, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
The price of new-crop wheat which is due to hit the market in July remained at USD242 per ton, he said.
IKAR estimates Russia’s May wheat exports at between 3.3 million tons and 3.4 million tons. Wheat exports in June are expected to be no higher than 2.5 million tons.
Sovecon consultancy put prices last week for Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein at between USD243 and USD245 a ton compared to between USD242 and USD244 the week before. In the first half of last week, Russian FOB hit USD246-247 a ton, a season high, before easing by the weekend, analysts noted.
“Global FOB values were generally lower… pressured by collapsing futures and lukewarm importer demand. Russian FOB was an important exception. Prices rose again on limited domestic supply and the elevated ruble exchange rate”, head of Sovecon Andrey Sizov noted. Sovecon last week revised its estimate for May wheat exports upwards by 0.2 million tons compared with the previous week week, to 3.0 million tons.
Last week, the agency raised its estimate for the 2026 wheat harvest to 90.3 million tons. Today, it announced a downward revision to its export forecast by 0.6 million tons for the current season, citing slowing demand from importers.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture expects wheat exports from Russia this season to reach around 50 million tons and anticipates a “decent harvest” in 2026, based primarily on the condition of winter crops, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said at the end of last week.
The rail operator Rusagrotrans estimated May wheat exports at 3.0 million tons. Some 2.5 million tons were shipped between May 1 and May 25.
Comments