SAO PAULO: Brazil’s soybean area is expected to post only marginal growth in the 2026/27 season due to higher production costs and risks linked to the El Nino climate phenomenon, Argus analyst Nathalia Giannetti said on Wednesday.
Farmers in the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter are facing tighter margins pressured by rising fertilizer costs amid geopolitical tensions, reducing incentives for a larger area expansion, Giannetti said at an event.
Possible strong El Nino poses additional risks for the upcoming crop, according to Argus. A strong El Nino would likely be more damaging for Brazil’s soy output than a La Nina scenario. El Nino conditions risk drought in Brazil’s Center-West, the country’s top
grain-producing region, and excess rainfall in the South.
“Excess rain is a problem and lack of rain is an even greater one,” Gianetti said. Argus has yet to publish an area forecast for the season, which begins planting in mid-September.
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