Indian rupee hits record closing low hurt by surging oil, persistent outflows

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee fell to a record closing low on Wednesday, pressured by rising oil prices as efforts to end the Iran conflict remained stalled, while persistent foreign selling of Indian assets added to the strain.

The Indian rupee closed at 94.8450 per dollar, down 0.3% on the day.

The currency has drifted back toward record lows as the impact of central banks’ rupee supportive measures faded, with concerns over India’s exposure to higher energy prices weighing on sentiment.

Dollar sales by state-run banks, likely on behalf of the RBI, helped limit losses, traders said.

Brent crude rose more than 3% to nearly $115 per barrel, weighing on other oil-sensitive Asian currencies such as the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah, both of which hit record lows on Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported late on Tuesday, citing U.S. officials.

Analysts and traders expect the rupee to remain under strain as long as oil prices remain elevated but a fall below 95 could draw sterner interventions by the Reserve Bank of India.

“Around these levels last month the RBI had stepped in heavily with both dollar sales and regulatory measures, at least one of those could be used again,” a trader at a state-run bank said.

Global markets, meanwhile, are also awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision. No change in benchmark rates is expected but investors will pay close attention to commentary on how the Iran war will impact the world’s largest economy.

“We think it makes sense to brace for a higher-for-longer rates world, amidst what looks to be higher-for-longer inflation,” analysts at DBS said in a note.

Fed funds futures are pricing in no policy changes by the Fed until late in 2027, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.