Pakistan’s electricity deficit surpasses 11,000 MW amid supply strain

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is currently facing a deficit of over 11,000 MW of electricity due to zero supply of RLNG, along with scheduled and unscheduled outages and prolonged faults at key power plants, including the 969MW Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project (NJHPP) and the 747 MW Guddu Combined Cycle Power Plant, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.

The country’s total installed power generation capacity stands at around 46,000MW. However, effective operational capacity has dropped to about 29,066 MW. This includes the 969 MW NJHPP, which remains completely offline, and the Guddu plant, which is operating at nearly half of its capacity.

Of the total effective operational capacity, hydel generation accounts for 6,602 MW, RLNG-based power 6,602 MW, residual furnace oil (RFO) 3,472 MW — some of which has been shut down — coal 6,778 MW, gas 1,907 MW, nuclear 2,990 MW, solar 716 MW, wind 156 MW, and bagasse 132 MW.

READ MORE: Country grappling with massive power shortfall

Earlier, on August 6, 2024, the Power Division had informed the Senate Standing Committee on Power that the country’s installed capacity stood at 39,666 MW, with degraded capacity at 35,980 MW. After accounting for high summer temperatures (40°C), the available capacity was estimated at 35,625 MW. Further adjustments for permissible and forced outages reduced it to 34,186 MW, while seasonal variations and high marginal costs further impacted availability.

According to current estimates, out of an effective operational capacity of around 28,000 MW, nearly 11,000 MW is unavailable, leaving actual available capacity at approximately 17,000 MW.

A spokesperson for the Power Division stated on Thursday that in response to provincial demand, 4,950 MW of electricity was generated during peak hours through water releases from dams. The total hydropower installed capacity stands at 11,500MW; however, generation remains around 6,000 MW below capacity, primarily due to lower water demand from provinces.

The spokesperson further stated that an additional 400 MW was transmitted from the southern region to the national grid to maintain system stability. However, transmission constraints are preventing the full transfer of surplus electricity to the northern region, contributing to prolonged load shedding in Central Punjab.

The Distribution companies (Discos) carried out load management of two to two-and-a-half hours during peak hours due to increased demand, the spokesperson added. “Economic load management” on high-loss feeders will continue in line with government policy and is not linked to peak-time load management, the spokesperson clarified, adding that the latter is expected to end once LNG supplies resume.

“Due to the unavailability of LNG, power plants with a combined capacity of 5,500MW are not generating electricity. There is a need to adopt electricity conservation measures during nighttime to better manage rising demand,” the spokesperson said, noting that global conditions and reduced water releases are contributing to nighttime deficits.

According to NGC, under the high-demand scenario, available energy will reach 218,984 GWh with peak demand of 43,069 MW by 2035. In the medium-demand scenario, energy requirements are estimated at 198,963 GWh with peak demand of 39,132 MW.

Under the low (business-as-usual) scenario, gross energy demand is projected at 180,605 GWh, or 167,293 GWh excluding net metering, with peak demand of 35,521 MW. In the DSM-based low-demand scenario, available energy remains 180,605 GWh, while peak demand is expected to decline significantly to 28,622 MW by 2035.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026