Indian rupee may weaken past 94, oil surge wipes large part of relief rally

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to extend its slide on Thursday and could weaken past 94 per US dollar, ​pressured by oil climbing back above $100 a barrel, underscoring ‌that the relief rally has run its course.

The rupee is expected to open in the 93.92-93.98 range, per traders, having settled at 93.7950 on Wednesday.

The currency has already lost ​nearly 1% this week and slipped well past its recent highs ​near 92.50, a level reached largely on the back of support ⁠measures by the Reserve Bank late last month and again in ​April.

We expect 94 to be “taken out right” at the open,” said a currency ​trader at a private sector bank.

The drop past that level will just reinforces what has been playing out - that the move from 95 to 92.50 was a relief ​rally, and with oil well past $100, that trade looks done, he ​said.

The RBI has been selling dollars over the last couple of sessions to ‌keep ⁠a lid on the rupee’s slide, traders said. However, the currency has run into heavy demand from oil companies and very thin dollar supply, they added.

While the intervention has helped slow the pace of the rupee’s ​decline, it has ​so far fallen ⁠short of arresting the broader downtrend.

Oil on the boil again

Brent settled above $100 first the time in more than two ​weeks on Wednesday, last at $103.24, on stalled peace talks ​between ⁠Iran and the United States, and continued restrictions on trade through the Strait of Hormuz fuelling supply concerns.

With both Iran and the U.S. blocking the strait, the standoff appears ⁠to “be ​a case of brinkmanship,” ANZ Bank said ​in a note. Each day that the waterway remains closed, the risks of energy shortages and ​inflation intensify, the bank said.