Africa, Southeast Asia drive China solar panel exports to record in March

SINGAPORE/BEIJING: China’s solar panel exports soared to a record in March, China customs and industry data showed, as Southeast Asia and Africa stockpiled ahead of expected price increases and fallout from the Iran war boosted demand.

Panel exports surged 42.2% to 1.75 million metric tons in March, equivalent to 13.3% of volumes in all of 2025. The shipments were valued at $3.61 billion, up 67% from a year earlier and 125% from February, Chinese customs data showed.

Countries in Southeast Asia and Africa rushed to import panels ahead of expected price increases due to an end to China’s export tax refunds on April 1, with the surge amplified by disruption to energy supplies due to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, analysts said.

“Silver prices fell from an all-time high in January and drove production costs lower, helping increase production and address demand ahead of a price increase from April,” said Marius Mordal Bakke, who heads solar research at consultancy Rystad Energy.

Investors are betting on renewable energy stocks in China, the dominant maker of solar gear, on expectations that the war will boost global demand for renewables.

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Jing Yang, director at Fitch Ratings, expects China’s solar exports to drop significantly in April from March, but said 2026 exports could be supported by incremental demand “due to elevated oil prices and energy security concerns.”

S&P in February had projected China’s 2026 solar exports to remain flat-to-slightly down versus 2025 because of weaker global demand before the Iran war.

Surge LED by Philippines, democratic republic of Congo

Import duties on Chinese panels in countries including India and the U.S. have blunted demand there, shifting flows to markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa.

“The structural change in China’s solar product exports has been an ongoing trend, against the background of expanding overseas manufacturing capacity of solar modules due to rising U.S. trade barriers against Chinese solar products,” Yang said.

Southeast Asia’s imports jumped 267% annually and 203% from February to $673.3 million in March, while Africa’s March imports surged 238% annually and 211% from February to $438.28 million.

Imports by the Philippines, which is targeting faster solar additions through 2030, nearly quadrupled from a year earlier to 109,513 tons valued at $228 million.

In Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has one of the world’s lowest rates of electrification, saw March shipments soaring to 21,370 tons worth $62.73 million from just 1,352 tons a year earlier.

Ashuza Achille, head of business development at Kinshasa-based GoShop Energy, said he had stockpiled ahead of the expected price hike in China to supply increasing demand from small businesses and rural residents.   Resellers buying solar panels have increased to more than 1,000 from 80 in 2022, he said.

“I also have customers from Brazzaville in the Republic of Congo who come to DRC. They cross the border, pick up solar panels and then go back to execute their projects.”